OREANDA-NEWS. April 16, 2015. For two years, US polyethylene prices climbed higher and higher.

For two years, feedstock prices had little-to-no impact on domestic polyethylene contracts. Upward or downward shifts in domestic demand seemed to have little effect.

And what was happening in the rest of the world seemed to only faze those who dealt with exports.

The US polyethylene market, some began to believe, had become mostly — if not totally — insulated from what was happening in the Middle East, Asia, Europe or anywhere else on earth that people were buying and selling resin.

“When do you think prices could come down?” I asked a long-time industry participant in early 2014 after another domestic price increase had been implemented.

“2017,” he answered, only half-jokingly.

Just a year ago, there were plenty of people in the US market who felt the same way, given strong domestic demand, well-managed producer inventory levels and capacity expansions that were still a couple of years away.

How times have changed in a world where oil prices have shed roughly half of their value since June 2014.

US PE producers were able to implement one more price increase in the second half of 2014 before a slide began in November and didn’t stop until US prices had shed 16 cents/lb by the end of February.

The slide ended with a rollover in March, and when the calendar turned to April, there were expectations of another flat month before producers plan to push for a 5 cents/lb increase in May.

But one very large and unpredictable variable continues to remain in play.

“It all depends on oil,” a source with a major US PE producer said during last month’s NPE2015 show in Orlando.Even in a feedstock price-advantaged US market where ethylene makers are far more dependent on lower-priced ethane — which tracks natural gas, the impact of lower crude is being felt.

“It’s more mental at this point,” the producer source said.

The US market may not be as reliant on oil-based naphtha as most parts of the world, but domestic buyers are keenly aware of what lower oil prices can mean for global polyethylene prices.

After all, multiple industry sources said last fall that it was the very-real threat of lost manufacturing production to Asia that first started the domestic PE price slide in an effort to shrink widening polyethylene price gap between the two regions.

Even at current crude prices, ethane-based producers in the US still remain cost advantaged compared to their naphtha-based counterparts, just not as advantaged as they were when oil sold for twice as much.

And that has led many to wonder just how much of the new ethylene and polyethylene capacity will actually happen.

Global projects

If all projects come to fruition, it would mean about 8 million addition metric tons of polyethylene in the US. A country that currently absorbs about 80 of the polyethylene it produces will soon view exports as a necessity, not just a means of moving excess resin or thinning inventory levels.

More exports mean even more resin that must compete with global pricing, a situation that likely looked a bit better to the US-based sellers when naphtha carried a larger price tag. And it’s not like North America is the only place looking to expand. Worldwide polyethylene production is forecasted to grow from 85.9 million mt in 2014 to 117.8 million mt by 2025, according to Platts Analytics.

Of the 24 announced ethylene projects in North America, about 1/3 face delay risks, according to Platts Analytics. Projects that have already broken ground will almost assuredly move forward, according to market sources, but the projects in the second wave could be at risk the longer low oil prices — combined with rising construction costs and potential labor shortages — chip away at anticipated bottom lines.

While there have been some announced cancellations in the Middle East, no other official statements concerning cancellations or delays have occurred.

The upcoming round of Q1 earnings calls could get interesting, particularly as stock holders and analysts look for answers about these projects. The economics have changed significantly for some of them, particularly those that were originally pitched in the days of \\$100/b crude.

What a difference a few years can make.