OREANDA-NEWS. April 13, 2015. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Historical Territory of Bizkaia's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'A' with Stable Outlooks. Fitch has also affirmed the Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
The affirmation reflects the application of Fitch's criteria explaining the conditions of eligibility for a subnational to be rated above the sovereign. Fitch considers that local and regional governments within the Basque Country meet these conditions (institutional strength, financial autonomy and willingness to service debt). Bizkaia is in charge of levying, collecting and inspecting most of the tax revenue generated within its boundaries. The Stable Outlook reflects that on Spain (BBB+/Stable).

The affirmation also reflects Bizkaia's solid socio-economic profile, its ability to maintain a stable and sound operating performance, and its relatively low debt levels, which are projected to remain stable. The ratings also takes into account its prudent management and solid financial reporting.

According to preliminary accounts, tax revenue rose by 5 % in 2014 to reach EUR6.5bn, and the 2015 budget includes 8.8% tax collection growth as the economic activity continues improving. The 2014 preliminary results post a gross operating margin above 7% and below the 8.2% of 2013, but still reinforcing Bizkaia's good budgetary performance. The provincial administration has applied cost-containment measures since 2009 while maintaining a high level of social services. The operating expenditure grows 5% in the 2015 budget, and Fitch expects that future growth should not exceed revenue. A current margin close to 7% is expected in 2014- or close to 30% excluding the institutional transfers against a 33.8% in 2013. Under Fitch's base case scenario, current margin will hover around 4% over 2015-2016.

Debt was almost stable over 2009-2013 and Fitch expects it will remain so in the medium term. Bizkaia is expected to report a comfortable debt pay back of 3.6 years in 2014, and according to Fitch's base scenario it will not vary significantly over 2015-2016. Bizkaia's future debt repayments are significantly below the expected current balance, and direct debt will not increase over this period.

Bizkaia has an estimated population of 1.15 million, largely concentrated around its capital, Bilbao. It started contracting in 2012 in line with Spain, registering a drop of 0.6% over 2012-14. Bizkaia's GDP was estimated at EUR32bn in 2012, accounting for 3% of national GDP, with GDP per capita 23% above the Spanish average of EUR22,562. The economic structure is characterised by a large manufacturing sector, making up around 16% of its GDP, and it is active in research and development activities in the energy sector. Bizkaia's solid fundamentals are also demonstrated by the employment rate, which was 46.8% in 2014 (above Spain's 45% average Spain). The number of registered workers grew by 1.4% in 2014, the first time since 2008, although it was below the national rate of 2.4%.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
An upgrade of the sovereign would be a condition for positive rating action, since Bizkaia is already two notches above the rating of Spain, the maximum allowed under Fitch's current criteria.

The ratings could be downgraded if Bizkaia's operating balance falls and does not fully cover annual debt service requirements. A downgrade of Spain would trigger a downgrade of Bizkaia.