Fitch to Rate BAMLL Commercial Mtge Securities Trust 2015-200P Comm'l Mtge P-T Ctfs; Presale Issued
Fitch expects to rate the transaction and assign Rating Outlooks as follows:
--\$773,000,000 class A 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$773,000,000* class X 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$177,000,000 class B 'AA-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$130,500,000 class C 'NR';
--\$138,000,000 class D 'NR';
--\$23,500,000 class E 'NR';
--\$158,000,000 class F 'NR'.
* Interest-only class X is equal to the notional balance of class A. Fitch does not expect to rate classes C, D, E or F.
The expected ratings are based on information provided by the issuer as of March 30, 2015.
The certificates represent the beneficial ownership in the issuing entity. The primary asset of the trust is one loan having an aggregate principal balance of approximately \$1.4 billion as of the cutoff date, and secured by the fee, leasehold and grant of term interests in 200 Park Avenue, an approximately 3.02 million sf office and retail building located in the Grand Central submarket of Manhattan. The property is approximately 99% leased by 50+ office and retail tenants, post-MetLife lease expansion commencement dates. Major current tenants include Barclays (13.3% of net rentable area [NRA]), The Dreyfus Corporation (10.4%), Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, LLP (10.3%), Winston & Strawn, LLP (8.7%) and Greenberg Traurig, LLP (6.6%).
The sponsor recently announced the early termination of Barclays, agreeing to surrender 357,405 sf of space in September and December 2015 and paying an approximately \$27.5 million termination payment. In conjunction with the lease termination, the sponsor signed an expansion lease with MetLife on 495,551 sf, inclusive of the space surrendered by Barclays. Following the anticipated MetLife lease commencement dates in January and March 2016, the property is anticipated to be 99% leased.
The loan includes \$60 million of upfront reserves to address landlord obligations for previously signed new and renewal leasing, the main tenants include J. Fitzgibbons, Paul Hastings and Merrill Lynch Pierce. In addition, approximately \$62.5 million in monthly deposits will be collected over the first 18 months of the loan term, in addition to the \$27.5 million Barclays lease termination payment, for a total of \$90 million of reserves to address landlord obligations associated with the MetLife expansion lease signing. The loan was originated by Bank of America, N.A. and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Good Property Quality in Strong Location: 200 Park Avenue consists of a 58-story, class A- office building located in midtown Manhattan above Grand Central Terminal, one of the busiest transportation hubs in the world. Since purchasing the property in 2005, the sponsor has invested significant capital in the property, most recently redeveloping the 58th floor from mechanical space into office space.
Major Tenant Transition: Barclays Bank recently executed a lease termination agreement on 357,405 sf, surrendering the majority of its space to the sponsor by Dec. 1, 2015. In conjunction with the lease termination, MetLife (rated 'A/F1' by Fitch) signed a lease expansion on 495,551 sf. A reserve of \$62.5 million over an 18-month period, in addition to the Barclays lease termination payment, has been structured to address the estimated \$90 million in costs associated with the MetLife lease signing. See page 4 for more details.
Strong Occupancy and Diverse Tenant Base: The property was approximately 87.9% occupied and 99% leased as of March 2015, inclusive of the newly signed MetLife lease expansion, and has maintained an average occupancy of 95.3% over the past nine years. The property is leased by over 50 tenants, many of which are investment-grade-rated or AM Law top-100 law firms.
The current top five tenants account for 49.2% of NRA and include Barclays (13.3% of NRA and rated 'A/F1'), The Dreyfus Group (10.4% of NRA, parent rated 'AA-/F1+'), Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher, LLP (10.3% of NRA), Winston & Strawn, LLP (8.7% of NRA) and Greenberg Traurig, LLP (6.6% of NRA).
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Fitch found that the property could withstand a 73.3% decline in value and an approximate 42% decrease in the YE2014 net cash flow prior to experiencing \$1 of loss to any 'AAAsf' rated class.
Fitch performed several stress scenarios in which the Fitch net cash flow (NCF) was stressed. Fitch determined that a 54.7% reduction in Fitch's NCF would cause the notes to break even at a 1.0x debt service coverage ratio (DSCR), based on the actual debt service.
Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings for class A (rated 'AAAsf') and found that a 11% decline in Fitch NCF would result in a one-category downgrade, while a 36% decline would result in a downgrade to below investment grade.
The Rating Sensitivity section in the presale report includes a detailed explanation of additional stresses and sensitivities. Key Rating Drivers and Rating Sensitivities are further described in the accompanying presale report. The presale report is available to all investors on Fitch's web site 'www.fitchratings.com'.
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