11598.jpg

OREANDA-NEWS. Sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles (LCV) in Russia in the first quarter of 2015 reduced by 37.5% YOY up to 376.3 thousand cars. This follows from the consensus forecast compiled by "RIA Novosti", according to a survey of analysts.

Thus, the agency "AUTOSTAT" predicts sales at 360,000 vehicles, "VTB Capital" - 377 500 units, Roland Berger - 391,5 thousand units. In the first three months of 2014, sales of new cars and LCV in Russia fell only by 2% in annual terms and they were 602.5 thousand vehicles, according to the statistics of the AEB. Thus, on average, for the first quarter of 2015 the sales may fall by 37.5% to 376.3 thousand vehicles, says the agency "Prime".

"If we talk about the format of the data of AEB, passenger cars plus light commercial vehicles, then, in my opinion, the volume of sales in the first quarter in the format of AEB will be about 360 thousand cars", - says the executive director of the agency "AUTOSTAT", Sergey Udalov. According to him, such a low volume of sales is explained by the number of reasons. The demand was “taken” essentially in November and December of the last year, when it was bought a large amount of cars "at the old prices", prices of almost all brands of cars also increased significantly, the uncertainty of consumers in the future played a role because of the general state of the economy, resulting the opportunity to extend the operation of the existing car at least for a year, explains Mr.Udalov.

In this case, for a number of brands there is a lack of cars in stock, and delivery is available only on request, says the analyst. Raising of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in December of 2014 and, accordingly, interest rates on loans, banks have tightened policy in respect of borrowers, and the unwillingness of the population to take loans led to a drop in the share of credit cars, he said. "The negative market trends also affect demand, such as withdrawal from the market of Chevrolet and Opel”, - added Mr.Udalov.

Drop in sales in the first quarter will be 37% up to 377.5 thousand vehicles, predicts the analyst from "VTB Capital", Vladimir Bespalov. "In March, the situation is even worse in terms of incidence, because in March of last year it was quite high base (it was sold a lot of cars - Ed.)”, - the analyst believes. Therefore, in March, the rate of decline was even greater than in January and February, he concludes. "In the second quarter it could start the improving, because a year ago, there was a strong fall in the second quarter, the base is below. And now the government measures to support the stabilization of exchange rates may in some way help the situation, "- says Mr.Bespalov. In this case, the overall situation, according to him, is still difficult - "low demand, situation is not very favorable in the economy, naturally people postpone the purchase of a car."

Mr.Bespalov also draws attention to the significant increase in car prices since the beginning of the year, including domestic brands. "Though it was the decrease of prices for some foreign brands, but in view of the increase that occurred before, we should not expect much in demand ", - says the analyst. Production is related to the sales, but in the longer term segment and the first one suffers imports, so dynamics will be red, but it must be better than the sale, said V.Bespalov.

According to Mr.Udalov, the demand in March was slightly improved by lower prices for some brands and the offer of their own credit programs by manufacturers. "In the second quarter it will be launched the government's measures to support the car market: preferential loans, subsidized leasing. It will help the market, but crucially, unfortunately, it does not change the situation as it was in 2010,"- the analyst believes.

Second-quarter sales may be at the level of 380-400 thousand units, predicts Mr.Udalov. " The redistribution of the market between brands will continue, depending on the level of price rises and the availability of additional favorable conditions on certain models - lending, leasing, recycling”, - he said.

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants expects the development of the pessimistic scenario with volumes of 1.5-1.7 million of sold cars for a year, says the principal and board member, Edward Cherkin. Production in the first quarter of this year should fall by 25-30% by 2014, he predicted. "The reasons are the same, it seems to me: the systemic problems in the economy, falling real incomes, low consumer confidence and increase of the price of cars," - says the analyst.

AEB predicts the drop in sales of new cars and LCV in Russia in 2015 by 24.2% - up to 1.89 million units, the market will be reduced by 600,000 vehicles, said earlier the head of the committee automakers association, Joerg Schreiber.