Fitch: Losses Up for U.S. Prime Auto ABS, Down for Subprime as Spring Approaches
Prime auto loan ABS delinquencies and losses rose marginally month-over-month (MOM) in March, However, last month saw both subprime metrics fall with annualized net losses (ANL) declining 11.4%. Fitch expects asset performance to benefit both sectors over the next few months as consumers pay down their auto debt moving into the spring months.
Prime 60+ delinquencies were at 0.46% in February, just 2.2% higher MOM but were 18% higher versus a year ago. Prime ANL did rise 21% MOM to 0.52%, though this rate is still well below the 10-year average for the month which was 0.96% back to 2006. Asset performance remains solid in the sector despite rising off record lows of the past 2-3 years.
Subprime 60+ delinquencies declined 2.7% MOM through February to 4.62%, and were 22% higher versus a year earlier. Subprime ANL exhibited improvement last month declining to 7.26%, and were 5.1% above February 2014 displaying the best year-over-year (YOY) metric since mid-2014. Recently modest improvements in used vehicle values supported subprime asset performance in February.
However, subprime auto performance is slowing overall driven by weaker collateral characteristics in 2013-2014 securitized pools, including softer credit quality, longer loan terms and higher loan-to-values. The current 2013-2014 vintages are currently tracking above the strong 2010-2012 vintages to date, though still remain within Fitch's initial expectations.
The wholesale vehicle market slowed in February after four straight months of improved values through January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was at 125.1 last month, versus 125.3 in January. The index was still 1.5% above the level a year ago in February 2014. Used vehicle supply rose in February as new vehicle sales slowed and retail consumer demand crept lower. Compact cars continue to be the most pressured vehicle segment along with the mid-size segment as oil remains low and consumers are snapping up new larger SUV, CUV and truck models.
Fitch expects used vehicle values will be pressured throughout 2015, driven by rising supply for off-lease and trade-ins volumes as well as strong consumer demand for new vehicles.
Ratings performance has been solid in 2015 to date, with Fitch upgrading 13 subordinate note tranches versus nine during the same time in 2014. Fitch's rating outlook on the prime sector is positive for 2015 and stable for the subprime sector.
Fitch's indices track the performance of approximately \\$67.9 billion in outstanding auto loan ABS. Of this total, 67% is backed by prime auto loan ABS and remaining 33% by subprime ABS.
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