Fitch Rates JPMC Commercial Mortgage Securities Trust 2015-COSMO Commercial Mtg P-T Certificates
--\$287,000,000 a class A 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$78,000,000 a class B 'AA-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$70,000,000 a class C 'A-sf'; Outlook Stable;
The following classes are not rated:
--\$875,000,000 ab class X-CP;
--\$875,000,000 ab class X-EXT;
--\$222,200,000 a class D;
--\$146,100,000 a class E;
--\$71,700,000 a class F.
a Privately placed pursuant to Rule 144A.
b Notional amount and interest-only
The certificates represent the beneficial ownership in the trust, the primary asset of which is one loan having an aggregate principal balance of \$875 million as of the cutoff date. The trust is secured by a first priority lien on the borrower's fee, condominium and operating leasehold interests in The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas, a 2,959 room luxury hotel located along the Las Vegas Strip. The sponsor of the loan is Blackstone Real Estate Partners VII-NQ L.P., an affiliate of The Blackstone Group L.P. (rated 'A+'/'F1' with a Stable Outlook by Fitch). The loan was originated by JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (rated 'A+'/'F1' with a Stable Outlook).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Asset Quality: The Cosmopolitan is a Class A luxury hotel and casino with an irreplaceable central location along Las Vegas Strip Corridor (the Strip) in Las Vegas, NV. It was built for approximately \$3.8 billion and features high-end amenities and services.
Market Positioning: Since 2012, the property has consistently ranked among the top hotels on the Strip and commands the highest average daily rate (ADR; \$307) of its competitive set (\$240) as of year-end 2014. The Cosmopolitan has a more diverse revenue stream that other competitive hotels.
Exposure to Gaming Revenue: Approximately 22% of revenue at The Cosmopolitan is derived from gaming, a more volatile revenue stream. Between 2007 and 2010 Las Vegas gaming revenue declined approximately 20% in a recessionary environment. Although hotel management does not view current gaming performance to have reached a stabilized market level, Fitch discounted TTM ended January 2015 gaming revenue by the peak to trough drop of 20%.
Trust Leverage: Fitch's stressed DSCR and LTV for the trust component of the debt are 1.09x and 96.0%, respectively. The most junior class rated by Fitch, Class C, has an LTV of 47.7% and a DSCR of 2.19x.
New Cash Equity: As part of the acquisition, the sponsor Blackstone Real Estate Partners VII-NQ L.P., contributed \$492 million of new cash equity.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Fitch found that the property could withstand an 84.2% decline in value and an approximate 73.0% decrease in the Fitch's net cash flow prior to experiencing \$1 of loss to the 'AAAsf' rated class A.
Fitch performed several stress scenarios in which the Fitch net cash flow (NCF) was stressed. Fitch determined that a 73.7% reduction in Fitch's NCF would cause the notes to break even at a 1.0x DSCR, based on the actual debt service.
Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings for class A and found that an 8.2% decline in Fitch NCF would result in a one-category downgrade, while a 43.6% decline would result in a downgrade to below investment grade.
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