UK election kicks off an uncertain period for energy investors
OREANDA-NEWS. March 31, 2015. The UK’s general election kicked off Monday with the official closure of parliament, heralding 38 days of campaigning ahead of the May 7 vote. With clear policy differences between the parties and the polls too-close-to-call, energy investors could be set for an uncertain year ahead.
Anyone who has attended energy industry conferences in recent years will be used to hearing a few stock phrases from speakers. Politicians and regulators warn that there is no “silver bullet” solution to deliver clean, affordable energy and that there is “no room for complacency” on security of supply. Energy companies, meanwhile, call for the “regulatory certainty” they need to make long-term investments in power plants, storage facilities and LNG terminals with decades-long operating lives.
But for investors in the UK energy industry, the next few months could be a very uncertain period. The BBC’s Poll of Polls March 30 shows the Conservative and Labour parties level-pegging at 34% each, with insurgent party UKIP on 13% and the traditional third party the Liberal Democrats trailing at 8%.
The last election, in 2010, brought coalition government to the UK, after the Conservatives and Lib Dems were forced to team up to establish a working majority. The situation in 2015 is harder-to-predict than ever, with coalition once again a likely outcome, but UKIP’s growing strength throwing a new element into the mix.
Anyone considering a major infrastructure investment in the UK would be unwilling to commit while the situation remains unclear, which could be beyond May 7.
In the event of a hung parliament, with no one party taking a clear lead, it could take several weeks to agree upon a new government. In 2010, there was a fortnight’s gap between the May 6 election and the May 20 coalition agreement. But commentators also argue that this year there is the real prospect of a second general election later this year if the first proves inconclusive.
The parties were much closer together on energy policy in 2010, with broad agreement on a markets-based approach and commitment to tough climate change targets from all the lead players.
In 2015, however, there is more “clear, blue water” between the Conservatives and the Labour party. Former energy secretary Ed Miliband, now the leader of Labour, would cap energy prices and impose strict decarbonisation goals.
Labour’s business manifesto unveiled Monday states that the party will freeze energy bills until 2017 “so that bills can fall but not rise” while reform is carried out, and that the party will “put in place a legal target to decarbonise our electricity supply by 2030.”
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