Fitch Rates GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2015-1
--\$129,000,000 class A-1 asset-backed notes 'F1+sf';
--\$329,360,000 class A-2 asset-backed notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$369,360,000 class A-3 asset-backed notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$72,930,000 class A-4 asset-backed notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$42,240,000 class B asset-backed notes 'AAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$38,940,000 class C asset-backed notes 'Asf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$30,170,000 class D asset-backed notes 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Strong Collateral Quality: 2015-1 has a weighted average (WA) non-zero obligor FICO score of 736, a relatively diverse mix of vehicles, and undiscounted base residuals of 66.22% as a percentage of securitization value (SV).
New Leasing Platform: GMF began originating auto leases in December 2010; therefore, empirical data are limited. Fitch supplemented the GMF data with proxy data from comparable origination platforms to derive a credit loss expectation. While residual value (RV) performance data for GM vehicles were utilized, an additional residual loss haircut was employed to account for potential volatility in auction proceeds owing to the servicer.
Concentrated Lease Maturities: Lease maturities are more concentrated in 2015-1, with the highest single-month maturity totaling 12.7% of the base RV and peak six-month residual maturities totaling 56% of the pool, both higher than 2014-2.
Sufficient Credit Enhancement (CE) Structure: Initial hard CE totals 18.40%, 14.55%, 11.00% and 8.25% for class A, B, C and D notes, respectively. Based on a 1.50% credit loss expectation stressed for each rating category and stressed RV loss expectations ranging from 33.7%-19.3% for 'AAAsf' to 'BBBsf', available CE is sufficient to support each expected rating.
Evolving Wholesale Market: The U.S. wholesale vehicle market has been normalizing following very strong performance in recent years. Fitch expects that increasing off-lease vehicle supply and pressure from rising production levels will lead to decreased residual realizations during the life of the transaction.
Stable Corporate Health: Fitch rates GMF 'BB+'/Positive Outlook. Fitch believes GMF to be a capable originator, underwriter and servicer, as evidenced by historical performance of its managed portfolio.
Legal Structure Integrity: The legal structure of the transaction should provide that a bankruptcy of GMF would not impair the timeliness of payments on the securities.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Unanticipated decreases in the value of returned vehicles and/or increases in the frequency of defaults and loss severity on defaulted receivables could produce loss levels higher than the base case. This could result in potential rating actions on the notes. Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings assigned to GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2015-1 to increased credit and residual losses over the life of the transaction.
Fitch's analysis found that the transaction displays relatively little sensitivity to increased defaults and credit losses, showing downgrades between one and less than one rating category even under Fitch's severe (2.5x base case loss). The transaction shows more sensitivity to residual loss volatility; though even under Fitch's severe scenario the class A and B notes would be expected to retain an investment grade rating.
Key Rating Drivers and Rating Sensitivities are further detailed in Fitch's presale report, published today and available at 'www.fitchratings.com' or by clicking on the above link.
Fitch's analysis of the Representations and Warranties (R&W) of this transaction can be found in GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2014-2- Appendix'. These R&W are compared to those of typical R&W for the asset class as detailed in Fitch's October 2014 special report, 'Representations, Warranties, and Enforcement Mechanisms in Global Structured Finance Transactions'.
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