Ontario projects more wind, solar amid flat demand

OREANDA-NEWS. March 26, 2015. Ontario's grid agency said 2,300MW of mostly wind and solar generation will be added to the region's resource base over the next 18 months to satisfy relatively flat electric demand.

The Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), which took over the duties of the Ontario Power Authority at the beginning of the year, expects to have adequate generation from now through September 2016.

New generation expected to begin service in that period includes about 1,700MW of wind, nearly 300MW of natural gas, 240MW of solar, 40MW of biomass and 10MW of hydroelectric, IESO said in a report that is issued every 18 months.

Demand is expected to remain relatively flat over the period under normal temperatures, and demand peaks will be pressured lower by residential and industrial conservation programs and time-of-use rates plans, especially during summers.

The 289MW Green Electron gas plant is expected to begin commercial operation in the third quarter in St. Clair Township, Ontario.

Nuclear output as a percentage of total Ontario electric production will fall from more than 65pc last year to 61pc in 2015 and just under 60pc in the first half of 2016, IESO said. Hydro's share of the fuel mix will rise to 25pc this year and 26pc in early 2016, from 24pc last year.

Natural gas and oil-fired generation will jockey with renewable resources in the fuel mix. Gas output will jump to 7.7pc in 2015 from 4.6pc share in 2014, then slip to 6.3pc in 2016 while wind output expands to 5.5pc in 2015 and to 7.6pc in 2016, from 5pc this year.

Under the IESO's scenario that includes all planned generation, Ontario's average 18pc reserve requirement is expected to be met for the period under normal weather conditions.

Under the grid agency's "firm" scenario that excludes generation that has not yet reached commercial operation, the reserve falls below the requirement in summer 2016 for about three weeks under normal temperatures.

Under extreme weather, the reserve could fall below the region's requirement for longer periods of time in 2016, especially during periods when generators shut for maintenance.

Overall power consumption is expected to increase by 0.1pc this year and by 0.5pc in 2016 because of the leap day that year.

Ontario power use last year peaked in winter, but the region is likely to return to a summer peak this year with a projected high of 22,991MW under normal weather, or 24,814MW under extreme weather conditions.

The winter 2015-16 peak is projected at 22,237MW under normal temperatures, or 23,029MW in extreme conditions. For summer 2016, demand is expected to peak at 22,966MW under normal weather, or 24,541MW under extreme weather.

Ontario's reserve margin averages 18pc through 2019. The requirement is 18.6pc this year; 17.3pc in 2016; 17.9pc in 2017; 18.4pc in 2018; and 17.6pc in 2019.