New York reliability fears fade on capacity return

OREANDA-NEWS. March 20, 2015. New York's electric grid operator has dropped earlier warnings that it could face grid reliability violations in the next four years after several power plants reversed plans to mothball or retire capacity.

The New York Independent System Operator said with about 2,000MW of capacity returning to the grid, it expects it can meet its resource needs for the next 10 years. The finding, included in a draft comprehensive reliability plan published this week, marks a reversal from last year, when the grid operator warned that capacity shortfalls could start in 2019.

Six months ago those reliability concerns prompted the grid to seek solutions for a 100MW capacity shortfall it expected to start in 2019 and grow to a 1,150MW by 2024. But the return of generating capacity, brought about in part because of reforms made last year, has meant the grid expects enough capacity for the next decade.

The new capacity will come from the return of 177MW of capacity at the Astoria plant, the withdrawal of mothball status for the 494MW Danskammer plant and the restoration of 377MW of capacity at the Bowline plant. All three use natural gas as fuel. ConEd is also adding 125MW of capacity from energy efficiency, demand response and combined heat and power projects in New York City.

Those resources are all located within the new Lower Hudson Valley capacity zone that includes New York City. The grid developed the capacity zone because the southeast corner of the state, including New York City, is transmission-constrained, creating the need to retain local generating capacity.

Power plant owners are bringing capacity back to other parts of the state. The 435MW Dunkirk plant in western New York intends to return to service in 2016 after converting from coal to gas. The grid also expects to get 348MW of capacity from the withdrawal of mothball status for the Selkirk gas plant near Albany.

Even with the improved outlook for resource adequacy in New York, the reliability plan warns that the potential retirement of the 610MW Ginna nuclear plant or delays in planned return dates for generators could create new reliability problems. The grid's electric system planning working group will discuss the comprehensive reliability plan on 20 March.