Analysis: New York grid cuts winter forced outages

OREANDA-NEWS. March 19, 2015. New York's statewide power grid has experienced fewer generation outages in the past three months than in winter 2013-14, but cold weather and lack of access to natural gas pipeline remains a leading cause of forced outages.

Forced outages peaked at 2,100MW on 7 January, which marked the winter 2014-15 peak load of 24,648MW, according to a presentation by Independent System Operator vice president for operations Wes Yeomans, released ahead of tomorrow's meeting of the grid electric-gas coordination working group.

About 1,600MW was counted as unavailable in the day-ahead market, with cold weather or lack of gas accounting for 75pc of the outage amount. Another 500MW was prescheduled to run on 7 January but was forced off line in real time.

Most gas-fired generators in New York do not have firm transportation arrangements for natural gas. Utilities straining to meet heating demand on unusually cold days can use all available pipeline space, forcing generators off line.

Forced outages reached 1,900MW on 18-19 February, another unusually cold day. The New York grid on 18 February also had to deal with an unexpected shutdown of the 1,363MW unit 2 at the Nine Mile Point nuclear plant, dispatching the oil-fired Oswego Harbor power plant's 822MW unit 5.

Outage rates were significantly lower than in winter 2013-14, when New York's primary grid operator lost 4,135MW, or 16pc of available generation.

Wholesale power prices in New York peaked in February even though load peaked in January. Power prices moved in line with gas prices, which got a lift from the coldest February weather in New York since 1941. The rise in natural gas prices made that fuel more expensive than oil on most days in February, so dual fuel units could be dispatched economically.