Fitch: Risk Diverging Between Chinese Retail, Institutional MMFs
Assets under management in Chinese MMFs surged more than six-fold from end-2Q13 to reach CNY2.2trn (USD353bn) at the start of 2015. This has mainly come from the search for yield among retail investors and the rapid expansion of e-commerce-related funds, which are linked to major online payment platforms.
Funds aimed at retail investors have turned to longer-dated assets in a bid to increase yields and stay competitive. In particular, the weighting of bonds, which have longer maturities than other common holdings, has steadily increased since 1Q14. This increases the sensitivity of these funds to potential interest-rate volatility. A large portfolio weight is also typically allocated to term deposits that are illiquid or, for negotiable term deposits, have untested liquidity. Institutional funds generally have a greater focus on short-dated assets, such as exchange-traded repos.
The divergence can be seen in the rise in funds' weighted average maturity (WAM). Thirty-eight percent of Chinese MMFs have a WAM of more than 90 days. The WAM of Yu'E Bao, the biggest Chinese MMF, increased from 44 days at end 3Q13 to 93 days at end-4Q14, effectively doubling its duration risk. High allocation to long-dated and illiquid or less-liquid assets makes fund liquidity management harder. Funds would have to sell assets if there were large outflows, potentially at a discount, if their primary liquidity was not enough to cover redemptions.
Institutional funds generally have lower WAMs. Fitch rates six institutional funds, whose average WAM was 21 days at end-4Q14, broadly unchanged from 23 days at end 3Q13, and which all have high allocation to naturally liquid assets. This helps limit market and liquidity risk compared to other short-term investments in China. But these institutional funds would still be affected by the spillover from a sudden change in retail investor allocations if selling by retail funds altered market liquidity or pricing.
We believe differentiation between Chinese MMFs could increase in 2015 as overall yields remain low, with some funds striving for higher yields while others choose to emphasise their more conservative style. For more analysis on our outlook for the sector, see our recent Special Report "Chinese Money Market Funds: Growth Set to Slow" available at www.fitchratings.com.
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