Fitch: Corporate Downgrades Trailed Upgrades in 2014
The share of issuers downgraded - 7% - fell from 8.9% a year earlier, while upgrades - 7.6% - were in line with the 7.8% recorded in 2013. The year-over-year stability rate of 76.3% was progressively higher than 2013's 74.4% and 2012's 72.7%.
A challenged European economic environment alongside geopolitical risks (Ukraine) pressured credit conditions, while the U.S. economy found its footing after a protracted recovery. The share of European corporate downgrades, 9.4%, topped upgrades of 5.9%. The reverse was true for North American rating activity with a downgrade rate of 5.6% lagging an upgrade rate of 9.6%.
Sovereign and M&A activity contributed to actions both up and down the rating scale across both financial and industrial issuers in 2014. Financial institutions rating activity improved with downgrades trailing upgrades by a margin of 0.7 to 1, from parity in 2013. Industrials approached balanced activity in 2014 with downgrades edging passed upgrades by a ratio of 1.1 to 1, contracting from 1.3 to 1 the prior year.
Emerging market issuer downgrades surpassed upgrades by a ratio of 1.6 to 1, for the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, advanced economy counterparts realized more benign conditions as the share of downgrades fell below upgrades by a margin of 0.7 to 1 in 2014, thus reversing the negative rating drift which began with the global financial crisis in 2008.
Fitch recorded a long term corporate issuer-based default rate of 0.49% in 2014, on par with 2013 and below the historical average 0.71% over the period 1990 - 2014. All 2014 defaults were rated speculative-grade at the beginning of the year, resulting in an annual default rate across speculative-grade issuers of 1.58%.
This new study provides data and analysis on the performance of Fitch's corporate finance ratings in 2014 and over the long term, capturing the period 1990-2014. The report provides summary statistics on the year's key corporate finance rating trends.
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