Fitch: Commerzbank Settlement Largely Covered by Provisions
The EUR1.2bn (USD1.5bn) settlement was with five US agencies, including the Department of Justice, the New York Department of Financial Services and the Federal Reserve. The cost was largely covered by litigation reserves built up over the past few years. Commerzbank's reserves for all legal risks were EUR934m at end-2013, and it booked further provisions during 2014. An additional one-off charge of EUR338m will be taken in 4Q14 for the settlement, which will be reflected in the final 2014 financial statements.
This will reduce already low net profit to EUR264m, but will only slightly dent capital, so the bank's ratings (A+/Negative/bbb) are unaffected. Nevertheless, internal capital generation remains a challenge for Commerzbank in light of its weak earnings record. In recent years Commerzbank's earnings have been affected by one-offs, both positive and negative, so are subject to considerable volatility. However, the bank is generating earnings growth in core businesses.
The settlement also included a cease-and-desist order requiring Commerzbank to implement an enhanced programme to ensure global compliance with US sanctions and anti-money laundering laws, and a deferred prosecution agreement. The bank is addressing the weaknesses. It has already taken remedial action and plans to more than double US-based compliance staff by 2016 and it will introduce more comprehensive global compliance policies.
We don't expect conduct cost risks to be material in the near term for Commerzbank. Nevertheless, there can be a long timelag between misconduct and subsequent sanctions and potential reputational damage, so tail risks will remain.
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