OREANDA-NEWS. March 16, 2015. Fitch Ratings has affirmed PJSC MTS Bank's (MTSB) Viability Rating (VR) at 'b-'. A full list of rating actions is at the end of this comment.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
MTSB's 'b-' VR is driven by the bank's weak asset quality, performance and strategy execution. However, the rating is supported by the still reasonable capital buffer following an equity contribution in 4Q14, positive pre-impairment profitability on a cash basis and an adequate liquidity position underpinned by significant and rather cheap funding from its parent, Sistema Joint Stock Financial Corp. (Sistema; BB-/RWN) and affiliated entities.

MTSB's asset quality is weak with non-performing (NPLs, including all loans over 90 days) and restructured loans of 25% and 5%, respectively, at end-2014 (19% and 3% at end-2013). Together these were reserved by only 69%, with the unreserved portion equal to 44% of Fitch core capital (FCC).

Most problems stem from the unsecured retail cash loan portfolio (about one-third of total loans), as reflected by their NPL origination (calculated as net increase in NPLs plus write-offs divided by average performing loans) of 47% in 2014, significantly higher than the average for Fitch-rated Russian retail banks. In 2014 the bank slowed its retail loan expansion to 7% from a high 52% in 2013. However, Fitch believes that not all problems have yet crystallised in the unsecured retail book, and further credit losses are likely in 2015.

Corporate loans (half of total loans) contributed about one-third of NPLs originated in 2014. Fitch's review of the 25 largest borrowers, accounting for about half of the total corporate loan book, revealed that at least two of these (or about 6% of loans), although not classified as either NPLs or restructured, are potentially risky as they are extended to highly leveraged borrowers, which could be particularly vulnerable to the recession.

Although MTSB's capital ratios improved following the recent equity injection (FCC ratio of approximately 18.7% and total regulatory ratio of 17.6% at end-2014), these are undermined by weak asset quality. The bank could have increased its statutory loan impairment reserves to 35% of (unconsolidated) loans at end-2014 from the actual level of 25% before its regulatory capital adequacy ratio would fall to the regulatory minimum of 10%. This would be sufficient to fully reserve current NPLs but not the restructured loans or any new potential problems. The bank may access RUB7.2bn of Tier 2 capital under the government recapitalisation programme through the Deposit Insurance Agency and get a further RUB4bn equity injunction from shareholders (combined, these would be equal to 6.6% of current risk-weighted assets).

The bank was deeply loss making in 2014 and showed further losses in January 2015 based on regulatory accounts. Profitability is unlikely to improve significantly in the near term due to weak asset quality and the difficult operating environment.

MTSB's liquidity position is a rating strength, supported by significant related party funding (43% of liabilities at end-2014). The bank has a solid level of highly liquid assets (cash, non-restricted short-term bank placements and repoable securities) sufficient to cover around 66% of MTSB's third-party funding at end-2014. The bank experienced significant outflows in 3Q14 when Sistema's major shareholder was temporarily put under house arrest and in 4Q14 due to general market turbulence, but received extra funding from related parties to support liquidity.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
A marked deterioration in the capital position as a result of further asset quality problems and operational losses could lead to a downgrade of the VR. The VR could stabilise at its current level in case of a stabilisation of the operating environment and from improvements in assets quality, resulting in stronger financial performance.

REVIEWS OF ISSUER DEFAULT RATINGS (IDRS), NATIONAL LONG-TERM RATING, SUPPORT RATING
Fitch will review the support driven ratings of MTSB shortly after review of the ratings of its parent, Sistema. Any rating actions on the parent's Long-term IDRs would likely result in similar actions on MTSB's ratings.

The rating actions are as follows:

Long-term IDR of 'B+'; RWN, unaffected
Short-term IDR of 'B', unaffected
National Long-term Rating of 'A-(rus)'; RWN, unaffected
Viability Rating affirmed at 'b-'
Support Rating of '4'; RWN, unaffected
Senior unsecured debt of 'A-(rus)', unaffected