OREANDA-NEWS. March 13, 2015. Although reports continue to suggest fighting persists in the east of Ukraine, recent ceasefire agreements appear to be taking a tentative hold and are a positive step when compared to earlier in the year. The impact of conflict in the Donbas, the easternmost region of Ukraine bordering Russia, has undoubtedly been traumatic for the country, but how has it affected the agricultural sector?

The short answer is – not that much, to be honest. Surprisingly, given the extent of the damage inflicted over the past 15 months, Ukraine’s producers and traders are enjoying some of the strongest harvests in recent years. Meanwhile, the conflict has caused less disruption or destruction than might have been expected.

Exports of Ukrainian wheat continue to perform strongly. Production for the 2014-2015 marketing year is expected to be up by 7.8% against the previous year, while exports are up 15.6% over the same period. Corn production has decreased slightly over the same period, albeit dropping from last year’s record output level. Total supply is down 5.6%, while exports have fallen by 3.9%.

The Crimean question factors into agricultural discussions, but only as a sideshow. Grains output in Crimea had been sliding for several years prior to the Russian annexation. And, by Ukrainian standards, it had never been a major force in grains production. Nevertheless, based on previous year’s output, Kyiv will now have to discount anywhere between 750,000 and 1.5 million mt of grain production from its annual figures.

Interestingly, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture and the state’s Statistical Service have actually started to include Crimean crop production in their output figures for 2014, although they add the caveat that they come directly from local sources rather than the Russian state. Make of that what you will.