OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Compagnie Generale des Etablissements Michelin's (Michelin) and Compagnie Financiere Michelin's (CFM) Long-term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to Positive from Stable and affirmed the IDRs and senior unsecured ratings at 'BBB+'.

Fitch has also affirmed both entities' Short-term IDRs at 'F2'. CFM is the group's finance arm and the intermediate holding entity for Michelin's non-domestic operations.

The rating actions reflect our view that the group increasingly displays credit characteristics in line with the low-end of the 'A' rating category, including solid and defensive business features and a relatively steady financial profile compared with other automotive suppliers.

We acknowledge the group's relatively modest free cash flow (FCF) generation for a rating in the 'A' category (1.1% in 2014, expected by Fitch to remain between 2.5%-3% on average in the medium term) but believe that this is mitigated by its stability and the strength of operating margins, funds from operations (FFO) and cash from operations (CFO). We also believe that the weak cash generation is driven by material capex, which is partly discretionary and can therefore be modulated in case of financial pressure to enhance FCF.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
Defensive and Premium Positioning
The ratings and Positive Outlook reflect the group's solid and defensive business profile and its relatively steady profitability and cash generation. Michelin derives a majority of its sales from the replacement market, which is more stable and profitable than the original equipment business. It is also positioned in the premium tyre segment, which is traditionally higher margin and faster growing than the overall market. In addition, geographic diversification is gradually increasing as a result of Michelin's investments in emerging markets.

Stable Albeit Weak Free Cash Flow
The FCF margin is low for the ratings as robust underlying FFO is largely absorbed by ambitious capex, earmarked chiefly to finance growth in emerging markets, and generous shareholder return. However, earnings and FCF held up during the economic recession and auto industry crisis in 2008-2009, and Fitch expects they will be sustained. In addition, we believe that the group retains some flexibility to curb or delay growth investments and/or dividend in case of financial stress.

Resilient Profitability
The operating margin remained broadly stable at 11.1% in 2014 despite a 3.4% revenue decrease, as improvement in the passenger car and truck divisions offset a further decline in the specialty tyre division's profitability. We expect a gradual increase in profitability towards 12.0%-12.5% by 2017, as additional cost savings and productivity gains, favourable developments in raw materials (RMs) costs as well as the positive effect from higher sales will offset unfavourable pricing developments, potential further adverse foreign-exchange movements and cost inflation, including the negative effect from higher depreciation and amortisation following the substantial increase in capex.

Raw Materials, Currency Exposure
RMs are a major part of Michelin's cost structure and their historical high price volatility has had a significant effect on profitability. A high portion of this cost is typically hedged and covered by RM clauses, but these clauses and hedges only protect for a limited period. Nonetheless, it has a good track record of passing on RM price increases to its customers. In addition, Michelin has high currency exposure from translation issues coming from its diversified international exposure.

Financial Flexibility
FCF has enabled the group to reduce debt steadily since the 2009 recession while FFO improved continuously. FFO adjusted net leverage declined from 3x at end-2009 to 1.3x at end-2013 although it increased to 1.5x at end-2014 as a result of the Sascar acquisition. However, we expect it to decline gradually to just less than 1x by end-2017. Financial flexibility is also supported by the group's ability to lower or delay investment in case of greater-than-planned earnings weakening.

Healthy Liquidity
Liquidity is supported by EUR0.8bn in available cash and equivalents at end-2014, following Fitch's adjustments of EUR0.7bn for restricted and unavailable operational cash, and undrawn credit lines of EUR1.5bn largely covering EUR0.7bn of current financial debt.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch's key assumptions for the period 2015-2017 within our rating case for Michelin include:
- Revenue growing by a CAGR of 3.4%.
- Total cost savings of about 1% of the total cost base.
- Neutral net impact of raw materials development, including pass-through clauses.
- Average restructuring cash outflows and pension cash contributions of EUR60m and EUR75m per year, respectively.
- Average capex of 8.2% of revenue.
- Dividend pay-out ratio of 35%, paid fully in cash.
- No new acquisitions.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action include
- Operating margin and CFO margin above 12% and 11%, respectively (operating margin 2014: 11.2%, 2015: 11.8%, 2016: 11.9%; CFO margin 2014: 12.9%, 2015: 14.1%, 2016: 13.0%).
- FCF margin above 3%.
- FFO adjusted net leverage below 1.0x (2014: 1.5x, 2015: 1.2x, 2016: 1.0x).
- Fixed charges cover above 8x (2014: 5.2x, 2015: 5.8x, 2016: 6.1x).

Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action include
- Erosion of profitability and cash generation measured notably by operating margin below 10% and FCF margin below 2% (2014: 1.1%, 2015: 2.9%, 2016: 2.3%).
- FFO adjusted net leverage above 1.5x.