Fitch Expects to Rate Volvo Financial Equipment LLC, Series 2015-1; Presale Issued
--\$196,000,000 class A-1 notes 'F1+sf';
--\$240,000,000 class A-2 notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$262,000,000 class A-3 notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$72,770,000 class A-4 notes 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$18,950,000 class B notes 'AAsf'; outlook Stable;
--\$26,530,000 class C notes 'Asf'; outlook Stable;
--\$26,122,168 certificates 'NR'.
Fitch's stress and rating sensitivity analysis are discussed in the presale report titled 'Volvo Financial Equipment LLC, Series 2015-1', dated March 5, 2015, which is available at 'www.fitchratings.com' or by clicking on the link below.
KEY RATING DERIVERS
Consistent Collateral: The 2015-1 pool consists of 82.91% trucking collateral and 17.09% of construction (CO) collateral. Of the pool, 12.88% is composed of dealer term loans (DTLs), which have not experienced credit defaults on the managed portfolio or prior securitizations.
Improved Managed Portfolio Performance: VFS' managed transportation portfolio experienced asset deterioration from 2007-2009. However, performance between 2010 and 2014 exhibited improvement in delinquencies and losses.
Strong Securitization Performance: The prior transactions have been performing well. Forecasts of cumulative net losses (CNL) on the outstanding securitizations are extrapolating below 1.00%.
Sufficient Credit Enhancement: Hard credit enhancement (CE) is 9.25%, 7.00% and 3.85% for the class A, B and C notes, respectively. Additionally, the notes benefit from excess spread, expected to be 2.36% per annum. CE levels are sufficient for the ratings under Fitch's 2.50% CNL proxy.
Stable Origination, Underwriting and Servicing Platform: VFS has demonstrated sufficient abilities as originator, underwriter and servicer, as evidenced by historical delinquency and loss performance of securitized trusts and the managed portfolio.
Integrity of Legal Structure: The legal structure of the transaction should provide that a bankruptcy of the trust would not impair the timeliness of payments on the securities.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Unanticipated increases in the frequency of defaults and loss severity on defaulted receivables could produce loss levels higher than the base case and could result in potential rating actions on the notes. Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings assigned to VFET 2015-1 to increased CNLs over the life of the transaction. Fitch's analysis found that the transaction displays some sensitivity to increased defaults and CNL, showing a potential downgrade of one category under Fitch's moderate (1.5x base case loss) scenario. The notes could experience downgrades of up to three rating categories, although still remain investment grade, under Fitch's severe (2.5x base case loss) scenario.
Key Rating Drivers and Rating Sensitivities are further described in the accompanying pre-sale report.
Fitch's analysis of the Representations and Warranties (R&W) of this transaction can be found in 'Volvo Financial Equipment LLC, Series 2015-1 - Appendix'. These R&W are compared to those of typical R&W for the asset class as detailed in the special report 'Representations, Warranties, and Enforcement Mechanisms in Global Structured Finance Transactions' dated Oct. 31, 2014.
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