Analysis: Northwest US winter hydro output rises

OREANDA-NEWS. Hydropower generation in the northwest US has risen fast this year even as above-normal temperatures have depressed load.

Power flows from the region are up sharply and wholesale power prices are trailing year-earlier levels by a hefty margin.

Hydropower generation by the Bonneville Power Administration averaged 11,384MW so far this year, based on data reported by the federal power marketing agency. That represents an increase of 58pc over the same period last year. Thermal and wind generation in the same period dropped by 30pc and 42pc, respectively.

Seasonal accumulations of heating degree days — a measure of heating demand — in Oregon and Washington as of 1 March were 19pc below normal and 18pc lower than a year earlier, according to the National Weather Service. Load in the Bonneville service area in January-February averaged 6pc lower year-over-year.

The rise in hydropower generation combined with lower load has boosted flows outside of Bonneville's control area by 62pc on the year, to 7,650MW on average in January-February.

Peak prescheduled prices at Mid-Columbia this year averaged \$21.34/MWh, just a third of the year-earlier average. By contrast, NP15 peak values in California are down by 43pc year over year. The Mid-Columbia discount to NP-15 in peak hours widened to 38pc from 10pc last year.

Warmer-than-normal weather contributed to higher hydro run but it also left snowpack below normal levels across parts of the northwest. The Natural Resources Conservation Service reports Columbia river basin snow-water equivalent at 52pc of the median as of yesterday even though precipitation in the past five months has been at 97pc of normal levels.

Northwest hydropower generation could be below normal levels in the next few months, possibly boosting gas-fired generation, analysts with PIRA Energy Group said in a research note this week.