Fitch Affirms All Classes of JPM 2006-CIBC15
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The affirmations are due to relatively stable performance of the pool, since Fitch's last rating action. Fitch modeled losses of 13.5% of the remaining pool; expected losses on the original pool balance total 22.9%, including \$293.7 million (13.9% of the original pool balance) in realized losses to date. Fitch has designated 27 loans (45%) as Fitch Loans of Concern, which includes five specially serviced loans (2.6%).
As of the February 2015 distribution date, the pool's aggregate principal balance has been reduced by 33.1% to \$1.42 billion from \$2.12 billion at issuance. Per the servicer reporting, 17 loans (9.9% of the pool) are defeased. Interest shortfalls are currently affecting classes A-J through NR.
The largest contributor to expected losses remains the Warner Building (20.7% of the pool), which is secured by a 614,647 square foot (sf) landmark office property located in Washington, D.C., approximately three blocks from the White House. In January 2012, the property experienced a significant decline in occupancy from 99% to 49% as a result of the bankruptcy and vacancy of the largest tenant, which represented 51% of NRA. As of the October 2014 rent roll, the property occupancy has increased to approximately 73%. The largest tenants are Baker Botts, LLP (27%, lease expiration 2020), Cooley LLP (18%, lease expiration 2028), General Electric Company (8%, lease exp. 2016), and Live Nation, parent of the Warner Theater, (7%, lease expiration 2023). The borrower continues to aggressively market the vacant space and discussions continue with several prospective tenants. Cash flow continues to improve as occupancy slowly improves and free rent periods burn off. The loan has a servicer-reported September 2014 YTD DSCR of 0.78x, which is up from the June 2013 reported DSCR of 0.30x.
The next largest contributor to expected losses remains the Scottsdale Plaza Resort (4% of the pool), which is secured by a 404-key hotel located in Scottsdale, AZ. While performance improved in 2014, the property continues to operate at less than breakeven cash flow. The most recent servicer-reported DSCR for YTD September 2014 was 0.78x, which is slightly above the YTD September 2013 reported DSCR of 0.56x, but significantly below the reported issuance DSCR of 1.93x. The loan remains current as the borrower has been funding debt service shortfalls out of pocket.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Although credit enhancement for class A-4, A-SB and A-1A is the same, class A-SB is a scheduled balance class, and is senior in priority to class A-1A and A-4 with respect to its scheduled principal payments. It is expected to be paid in full by September 2015, and therefore retains its 'AAAsf' and Stable Outlook. Outlooks on classes A-1A and A-4 are revised to Stable from Negative due to an overall improvement of the portfolio, including an increased percentage of defeased collateral (9.9% from 3.8% at last rating action); the classes may be subject to upgrades in the future should Warner Center stabilize and/or other preforming loans show improved performance. The distressed class A-M is subject to further downgrade should additional losses be realized.
Fitch affirms the following classes and revises Rating Outlooks as indicated:
--\$845.3 million class A-4 at 'AAsf', Outlook to Stable from Negative;
--\$16.1 million class A-SB at 'AAAsf', Outlook Stable;
--\$213.5 million class A-1A at 'AAsf', Outlook to Stable from Negative;
--\$211.8 million class A-M at 'CCCsf', RE 75%.
--\$130 million class A-J at 'Dsf', RE 0%;
--\$0 million class B at 'Dsf', RE 0%;
--\$0 class C at 'Dsf', RE 0%.
--\$0 class D at 'Dsf', RE 0%;
--\$0 class E at 'Dsf', RE 0%;
--\$0 class F at 'Dsf', RE 0%;
--\$0 class G at 'Dsf', RE 0%;
--\$0 class H at 'Dsf', RE 0%;
--\$0 class J at 'Dsf', RE 0%;
--\$0 class K at 'Dsf', RE 0%;
--\$0 class L at 'Dsf', RE 0%;
--\$0 class M at 'Dsf', RE 0%;
--\$0 class N at 'Dsf', RE 0%;
--\$0 class P at 'Dsf', RE 0%.
The class A-1 and A-3 certificates have paid in full. Fitch previously withdrew the ratings on the interest-only class X-1 and X-2 certificates. Fitch does not rate class NR.
Additional information on Fitch's criteria for analyzing U.S. CMBS transactions is available in the Dec. 10, 2014 report, 'U.S. Fixed-Rate Multiborrower CMBS Surveillance and Re-REMIC Criteria', which is available at 'www.fitchratings.com' under the following headers:
Structured Finance >> CMBS >> Criteria Reports
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