OREANDA-NEWS. Australian prime auto ABS losses fell over 4Q14, with the annualised net loss rate dropping 9bp to 0.37%, 2bp lower year on year (yoy). Fitch Ratings expects net losses to rise over the next 12 months to the 18-month average of 0.5%, as losses from less seasoned transactions begin to flow through.

Early delinquencies rose over the quarter, with 30+ days arrears reaching 1.06%, 11bp above 3Q14 and 5bp higher yoy. A modest 2bp rise in 60+ days delinquencies to 0.37% suggests that rising unemployment has yet to flow through to late-stage arrears.

Seasonality was the main driver for the lower losses and higher delinquencies in 4Q14. Losses may appear low in the fourth quarter due to fewer repossessions and recoveries taking place during the month of December, and early delinquencies tend to rise due to holiday spending pressures. The rise in delinquencies occurred despite an increase in the collateral underlying the index.

Prime auto ABS issuance was AUD6.0bn in 2014, 4.7% above 2013 levels but below 2012's record AUD6.5bn of securitised assets. The outstanding collateral underlying the arrears index was AUD0.3bn above the same time last year, at AUD10.3bn.

The current and historical Dinkum ABS Index data is available in Excel form through the full report entitled 'Auto ABS Index - Australia: The Dinkum Index - 4Q14', available at www.fitchratings.com or by clicking the link above.