Fitch to Rate Motel 6 Trust 2015-MTL6 Commercial Mortgage P-T Certificates; Presale Issued
Fitch expects to rate the transaction and assign Rating Outlooks as follows:
--\$90,000,000 class A-1 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$60,000,000 class A-2A1 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$436,750,000 class A-2A2 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$90,000,000* class X-A 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$1,710,000,000* class X-CP 'Bsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$1,710,000,000* class X-NCP 'Bsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$310,850,000 class B 'AA-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$140,400,000 class C 'A-sf; Outlook Stable;
--\$212,000,000 class D 'BBB-sf; Outlook Stable;
--\$350,000,000 class E 'BB-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$200,000,000 class F 'Bsf'; Outlook Stable.
* Interest-only class X-A is equal to the notional balance of class A-1 and interest-only classes X-CP and X-NCP are equal to the notional balance of classes A-2A1, A-2A2, B, C, D, E and F.
The expected ratings are based on information provided by the issuer as of February 9, 2015.
The certificates represent the beneficial ownership in the trust, the primary asset of which is one loan having an aggregate principal balance of approximately \$1.80 billion as of the cutoff date and secured by the mortgage loan and cash flow pledges securing 507 owned hotels, and equity pledges in the entities that own all the intellectual property, all the furniture, fixtures and equipment at the hotel properties, certain intellectual property and all the future and current franchise revenues, including those currently in place with 699 third-party owned hotels. The sponsor is Blackstone Real Estate Partners VII L.P., an affiliate of the Blackstone Group, L.P. The loan was cooriginated by JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (60%) and German American Capital Corporation (40%).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Single-Borrower Hotel Concentration: The transaction is primarily secured by 507 owned economy hotels under the Motel 6 and Studio 6 brands. Hotel performance is considered to be more volatile due to their operating nature.
Improving Asset Quality: The sponsor has spent approximately \$192.1 million (\$8,866/key) implementing the Phoenix renovation throughout nearly 50% of the owned portfolio since acquiring the portfolio in 2012. Fitch's average property quality score for the portfolio is 'B.' However, a material distinction exists between 'B/B+' quality 'Phoenix' upgraded hotels and traditional 'B-/C' quality unrenovated product. The sponsor is investing \$93.8 million in 2015 on approximately 110 properties, at which time 74% of the total portfolio will have been completed and a national advertising campaign will begin.
Geographic Diversity: The portfolio exhibits strong geographic diversity across 47 states and one Canadian province. The largest state exposure is California, with 138 hotels representing 27.2% by number of properties and 39.5% of net cash flow.
Experienced Ownership and Management: Blackstone, and its various real estate funds, is one of the largest hotel owners across a broad spectrum of hotel categories and brands. Current and past lodging investments include Hilton Hotels Corp., La Quinta, LXR Hospitality and Extended Stay America. Fitch considers Blackstone's operational expertise a strength of this transaction.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Fitch found that the property could withstand a 78.3% decline in value and an approximate 69.3% decrease in the Fitch's net cash flow prior to experiencing \$1 of loss to any 'AAAsf' rated class.
Fitch performed several stress scenarios in which the Fitch NCF was stressed. Fitch determined that a 70.4% reduction in Fitch's NCF would cause the notes to break even at a 1.0x DSCR, based on the actual debt service.
Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings for classes A-1, A-2A1 and A-2A2 (rated 'AAAsf') and found that a 27% decline in Fitch NCF would result in a one category downgrade, while a 53% decline would result in a downgrade to below investment grade.
The Rating Sensitivity section in the presale report includes a detailed explanation of additional stresses and sensitivities. Key Rating Drivers and Rating Sensitivities are further described in the accompanying presale report. The presale report is available to all investors on Fitch's web site 'www.fitchratings.com'.
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