OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has published updated criteria assumptions for analysing Norwegian residential mortgage loan pools. The criteria assumptions are used for analysing the risk of Norwegian mortgages when rating Norwegian covered bond programmes. The update does not have a rating impact on the existing covered bonds rated by the agency.

The main criteria change is the update of Fitch's house price decline assumptions following the sharp decline in the oil price in the second half of 2014. This decrease is expected to have a larger impact on the oil rich regions of Rogaland and Hordaland in Norway with house prices starting to correct after previously showing strong growth.

Fitch has reflected the potential impact of the house price correction in increasing its house price decline (HPD) assumptions, revising the base case to 22% from 5% in Rogaland and Hordaland and to 10% from 5% for the rest of Norway. The 'AAA' current-to-trough HPD assumption is 62% in Rogaland and Hordaland and is 50% for the rest of Norway, reflecting the fact that valuation ratios are well above their long-term average.

The Market Value Decline (MVD) assumptions incorporate the HPD assumptions and a quick sale adjustment (QSA) to reflect the price discount that properties experience upon repossession. This leads to an MVD of 69.6% in a 'AAA' scenario and 37.6% in a 'B' scenario for Rogaland and Hordaland and 60% and 28% in the 'AAA' and 'B' respectively for the rest of Norway.

Fitch notes that Norwegian borrowers' affordability remains high, aided by decreasing mortgage rates. Norges Bank also cut interest rates in 4Q14. In the short term Fitch does not expect the impact of lower oil prices to increase defaults on residential mortgages with only a significant protracted decline having a greater impact through higher unemployment. As a result, no changes have been made to the foreclosure frequency assumptions or to any other assumptions.

The report entitled 'Criteria Addendum: Norway' should be read together with 'Covered Bonds Rating Criteria', dated August 2014, 'Covered Bonds Rating Criteria - Mortgage Liquidity and Refinancing Stress Addendum', dated February 2014, 'EMEA Residential Mortgage Loss Criteria and 'EMEA RMBS Cash Flow Analysis Criteria', dated May 2014 for a comprehensive understanding of Fitch's approach to rating Norwegian covered bonds.