OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has affirmed Slovakia's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings at 'A+'. The Outlooks are Stable. The issue ratings on Slovakia's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have also been affirmed at 'A+'. The Country Ceiling has been affirmed at 'AAA' and the Short-term foreign currency IDR at 'F1'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
Slovakia's 'A+' rating reflects its robust institutional framework, including membership of the European Union and the eurozone, which has helped attract FDI and support a rebound in GDP growth after the 2009 crisis. The rating is constrained by relatively high GDP volatility, which reflects sector and market concentration and Slovakia's high trade openness. After a steep rise in recent years, Fitch forecasts government debt will stabilise at around 55% of GDP, although upward pressures persist. Recent improvements in the current account balance will help reduce net external debt, which is high relative to the 'A' peers' median.

Slovakia's 'A+' IDRs also reflect the following key rating drivers:

Real GDP grew 2.4% in 2014, driven primarily by domestic demand in the context of job creation, declining prices (-0.1% in 2014) and continued growth in bank lending to the private sector (+6.1% in 2014 after +5.6% in 2013). External demand, the key driver of growth in previous years, has been constrained by the slowdown in key European partners (Germany accounts for 21% of exports). Fitch forecasts growth will accelerate to 3.0% by 2016 as domestic demand expands and European economies gradually strengthen.

Fitch expects the government deficit will be 2.8% of GDP in 2015, down from 2.9% in 2014, primarily driven by the continuation of measures to increase tax compliance and broaden the tax base. Fitch expects Slovakia will keep its deficit below 3% of GDP in the medium term, reflecting the commitment of the authorities to comply with the Maastricht criteria. However, Fitch does not expect the deficit to fall much below 3% as the upcoming general elections in March 2016 make further structural reforms unlikely.

General government gross debt (ESA2010) was 53.7% of GDP at end-2014. The decline from 2013 (54.6%) reflected the use of fiscal cash reserves (central government deposits, mainly at the central bank, reduced to EUR1.4bn at end-2014 from EUR3.1bn at end-2013). The reduction in the cash reserves reduces fiscal flexibility and increases downside risks to debt dynamics.

Fitch forecasts government debt to increase to 55.3% of GDP by 2016, consistent with a deficit in the 2.5%-3.0% range. In the longer term, Fitch expects debt will gradually decline and reach 52% by 2022, due to higher nominal GDP growth with inflation gradually recovering to the 2% target. However, debt dynamics are sensitive to growth, inflation and fiscal assumptions and debt could exceed domestic targets, presenting challenges to fiscal policy credibility.

The current account has been in surplus since 2012, driven by a marked improvement in the trade balance to 6% of GDP in 2014, from less than 2% before 2012. Fitch expects the current account balance will be 1.8% of GDP in 2014 and is now in line with the 'A' peers' median (1.5% of GDP in 2014). Net external debt is forecast to gradually decline as a result, to 31.5% of GDP by 2016 from 35.6% in 2014, although this is still significantly above the -11.9% 'A' peers' median.

At 13.2% in 2014, the unemployment rate is high relative to the 'A' peers' median (6.8%). Two-thirds of it is long-term unemployment, in part reflecting low access to formal employment within the marginalised communities in the east and centre of the country. The authorities have introduced policies to reduce the labour wedge through lower health contributions on low income workers and higher in-work benefits.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's assessment that upside and downside risks to the rating are evenly balanced. Nonetheless, the following risk factors could individually or collectively trigger negative rating action:
-A severe economic downturn that damages fiscal, financial or economic stability.
-Failure to stabilise and, ultimately, reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio.

The main factor that could trigger positive rating action is a stabilisation in the government debt ratio followed by a firm downward trajectory, in conjunction with higher trend growth.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS
The European Central Bank's asset purchase programme should help underpin inflation expectations and supports our base case that, in the context of a modest economic recovery, the eurozone will avoid prolonged deflation.

Fitch also assumes gradual progress in deepening financial integration at the eurozone level and that eurozone governments will tighten fiscal policy over the medium term.

Fitch assumes that under severe financial stress, support for Slovak foreign banks would be forthcoming from their parent banks.