Fitch Downgrades Two Distressed Classes of JPMCC 2003-ML1
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The affirmations of classes H through L are due to increasing credit enhancement due to paydown and the relatively stable performance of the pool. The downgrades to classes M and N reflect the increased loss expectations from the specially serviced loans. Fitch modeled losses of 33.7% of the remaining pool; expected losses on the original pool balance total 2.5%, including \$6.6 million (0.7% of the original pool balance) in realized losses to date. Fitch has designated four (52%) of the remaining 14 loans as Fitch Loans of Concern, which includes three specially serviced assets (49.6%). Three loans (4.1%) are currently defeased.
As of the February 2015 distribution date, the pool's aggregate principal balance has been reduced by 94.6% to \$50.2 million from \$929.8 million at issuance. Interest shortfalls are currently affecting classes N and NR.
Losses are expected for the three specially serviced loans. The non-specially serviced Fitch Loan of Concern, Brendan Court (2.0% of the pool) has been experiencing operational shortfalls since the loan was originated. Fitch does not expect losses on the remaining ten loans that are not specially-serviced and not Fitch Loans of Concern due to strong servicer reported cash flow.
The largest contributor to expected losses is the specially-serviced Dearborn Shopping Center loan, a 199,366 square foot (sf) mixed use property (17% of the remaining pool) located in Dearborn, MI. The property has ground-floor retail space, a second floor dentist office, and vacant medical office space. As of December 2013, the property was 56% occupied. The largest tenants at the property include Dental Center (17%), Murray's Auto (9%), and the Secretary of State (3%). The property also has a 60,000 sf vacant medical office space that was formerly occupied by Midwestern Health Center. Midwestern Health went dark in 2010 and maintained lease payments through lease expiration in December 2012. The foreclosure sale occurred in October 2014 and is subject to a six month redemption period. A receiver is in place and the trust is expected to take title to the property in the second quarter of 2015.
The next largest contributor to expected losses is the specially-serviced High Ridge Center loan, a 260,644 sf anchored retail property (22% of the remaining pool) located in Racine, WI. The loan transferred to the special servicer in late 2012 after the Borrower requested a modification due to cash flow issues. A foreclosure sale was held in January 2015 and the trust anticipates taking title to the property in February 2015. Tenants at the property include Home Depot, Kmart, and OfficeMax. OfficeMax has indicated they do not intend to renew after their lease expires in June 2015. The property was 86% occupied as of September 2014.
The third largest contributor to expected losses is the real estate owned (REO) Crosspointe Plaza, a 93,677 sf anchored retail property (10.6% of the remaining pool) located in Naugatuck, CT. The loan failed to make its balloon payment in January 2013 and the trust took title to the property in July 2014. The property was 96% economically occupied as of YE 2014; however, the largest tenant at the property, a former grocery anchor, (56.1%) is currently dark and has a lease expiration of February 2015. The special servicer plans to backfill the anchor space within the next two years and market the property for sale.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The Rating Outlooks on classes H through K remain Stable as credit enhancement remains high. The Rating Outlook on class L is Negative due to the extended resolution period and increased loss expectations on the specially serviced loans. Classes M and N may be subject to further downgrades as losses are realized or if additional loans are transferred to special servicing.
Fitch downgrades the following classes as indicated:
--\$7 million class M to 'CCsf' from 'CCCsf'; RE 60%;
--\$4.6 million class N to 'Csf' from 'CCCsf'; RE 0%.
Fitch affirms the following classes but assigns or revises Rating Outlooks as indicated:
--\$5.8 million class L at 'BBsf'; Outlook to Negative from Stable.
Fitch affirms the following classes as indicated:
--\$8 million class H at 'AAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$10.5 million class J at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$5.8 million class K at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable;
The class A-1, A-2, B, C, D, E, F, G, and X-2 certificates have paid in full. Fitch does not rate the class NR certificates. Fitch previously withdrew the rating on the interest-only class X-1 certificates.
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