Fitch to Rate COMM 2015-DC1 Commercial Mortgage Trust Pass-Through Ctfs; Presale Issued
Fitch expects to rate the transaction and assign Rating Outlooks as follows:
--\$38,300,000 class A-1 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$172,500,000 class A-2 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$120,000,000 class A-3 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$68,500,000 class A-SB 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$200,000,000 class A-4 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$382,593,000 class A-5 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$1,076,575,000a class X-A 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$94,682,000b class A-M 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$80,656,000b class B 'AA-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$238,460,000b class PEZ 'A-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$63,122,000b class C 'A-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$143,778,000ac class X-B 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$71,888,000ac class X-C 'BBB-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$29,808,000ac class X-D 'BB-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$71,888,000 class D 'BBB-sf'; Outlook Stable;
--\$29,808,000 class E 'BB-sf'; Outlook Stable;
(a) Notional amount and interest-only.
(b) Class A-M, B and C certificates may be exchanged for class PEZ certificates, and class PEZ certificates may be exchanged for class A-M, B, and C certificates.
(c) Privately placed and pursuant to Rule 144A.
The expected ratings are based on information provided by the issuer as of Feb. 17, 2015. Fitch does not expect to rate the \$38,574,000 class X-E, the \$42,081,764 class X-F, the \$14,027,000 class F, the \$24,547,000 class G, the \$42,081,764 class H and the \$13,000,000 class HIX certificates.
The certificates represent the beneficial ownership interest in the trust, primary assets of which are 67 loans secured by 81 commercial properties having an aggregate principal balance of approximately \$1.4 billion, as of the cutoff date. The loans were contributed to the trust by German American Capital Corporation, Natixis Real Estate Capital LLC, Jefferies LoanCore LLC and UBS Real Estate Securities.
Fitch reviewed a comprehensive sample of the transaction's collateral, including site inspections on 78.1% of the properties by balance, cash flow analysis of 80.4%, and asset summary reviews on 80.4% of the pool.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
High Fitch Leverage: The pool's Fitch DSCR and LTV are 1.12x and 112.4%, respectively. This represents higher leverage than other recent Fitch-rated fixed-rate multiborrower transactions. The 2014 average Fitch DSCR was 1.19x, and the average Fitch LTV was 106.2%.
High New York Concentration: The largest state concentration is New York (30.1%), with 5 of the top 10 loans (27.3%) secured by properties located in New York City. The next largest state concentrations are California (9.6%), Arkansas (8.7%), Pennsylvania (8%) and Texas (5.5%). The largest loan in the pool (8.7%) is secured by a property located in Arkansas.
Limited Amortization. Eleven loans, representing 33.8% of the pool, are full-term interest-only, and 32 loans representing 41.3% of the pool are partial interest-only. The remainder of the pool consists of 24 balloon loans representing 24.8% of the pool, with loan terms of five to 10 years. Based on the scheduled balance at maturity, the pool will pay down 9.4%.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
For this transaction, Fitch's net cash flow (NCF) was 6.8% below the most recent net operating income (NOI; for properties for which a recent NOI was provided, excluding properties that were stabilizing during this period). Unanticipated further declines in property-level NCF could result in higher defaults and loss severities on defaulted loans, and could result in potential rating actions on the certificates. Fitch evaluated the sensitivity of the ratings assigned to COMM 2015-DC1 certificates and found that the transaction displays slightly above average sensitivity to further declines in NCF. In a scenario in which NCF declined a further 20% from Fitch's NCF, a downgrade of the 'AAAsf' certificates to 'A-sf' could result. In a more severe scenario, in which NCF declined a further 30% from Fitch's NCF, a downgrade of the 'AAAsf' certificates to 'BBBsf' could result. The presale report includes a detailed explanation of additional stresses and sensitivities on pages 10 - 11.
The master servicer will be KeyBank National Association, rated 'CMS1' by Fitch and the special servicer will be Rialto Capitol Advisors, LLC, rated 'CSS2' by Fitch.
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