Fitch Top 10 Most-Actively Traded LatAm Corporates: Petrobras Vital to Brazil, Govt Support Expected
'Petrobras' strategy has been at times driven by government objectives rather than by strong economic and business fundamentals. The Brazilian government has pursued macroeconomic and social targets through gasoline and diesel price controls, and has steered Petrobras to aid in local job creation by implementing potentially uneconomic local content requirements,' said Lucas Aristizabal, Senior Director.
Fitch expects Petrobras to be able to obtain financing from BNDES, as it has done in the past, should the company need a liquidity injection to help fund potential cash flow deficit in the near term. Fitch expects that Petrobras will not access the international debt capital markets during 2015. The company has announced measures to preserve liquidity.
Fitch estimates Petrobras requires at least USD15 billion of funding to preserve liquidity, cover USD11 billion of upcoming maturities in 2015, and any free cash flow (FCF) deficit the company reports as a result of its aggressive and rigid capex program.
All of the shortfall could be funded with cash on hand with the USD29 billion of cash and marketable securities reported as of Sept. 30 2014.
Other topics covered in the report include: economic importance, monopoly supplier, supply chain counterparty issues, banking system exposure, regulatory interference and role in energy security.
Fitch's Top 10 Most-Actively Traded LatAm Corporates series will be released one report per day as follows:
Feb. 2: Oi Scenario Analysis - Asset Sales and Industry Consolidation are Key to Credit Profile Recovery
Feb. 3: Cemex Scenario Analysis - Road to Investment Grade Runs through the U.S.
Feb. 4: Ecopetrol Price and FX Sensitivity Analysis - Rating Linkage with Sovereign Could Weaken
Feb. 5: America Movil Scenario Analysis - No Separation Anxiety
Feb. 6: Vale Scenario Analysis - Ratings Rock Solid Despite Industry Softness
Feb. 9: Pacific Rubiales Scenario Analysis - Preserving Liquidity Depletes Reserves
Feb. 10: PDVSA - Something's Gotta Give
Feb. 11: Cencosud Scenario Analysis - What Factors Could Stabililze the Company's 'BBB-' Rating
Feb. 12: Construtora Norberto Odebrecht Scenario Analysis - Could CNO Lose its Investment Grade Rating due to Lava Jato Scandal?
Feb. 13: Petrobras - A Political Labyrinth
For more information, a special report titled 'Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) - Political Labyrinth' is available on the Fitch Ratings web site at www.fitchratings.com.
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