OREANDA-NEWS. February 12, 2015. Output from Ivory Coast's April-to-September cocoa mid-crop could fall short of last year's harvest by as much as 130,000 tonnes due to harsh weather conditions and a drop in smuggling from neighbouring Ghana, farmers and exporters said.

The world's top producer saw record output of around 1.7 million tonnes of cocoa last year.

By Feb. 8, cocoa port arrivals had reached around 1,141,000 tonnes, according to exporter estimates, outpacing last year's levels for the first time since the start of the season on Oct. 1. However, few expect the trend to last.

Farmers and exporters believe output for this year's October-to-March main crop will finish close to last year's total of 1.2 million tonnes. It will then fall behind last year's record mid-crop of around 500,000 tonnes.

"This year there will be a lot less cocoa harvested for several reasons," said the director of an international export company in Abidjan. "The smuggling from Ghana and a long and strong Harmattan are going to have an impact." Two exporters contacted by Reuters forecast a drop in mid-crop output of 120,000 tonnes compared to last season, while a third estimated a gap of 130,000 tonnes.

"We estimate 50,000 tonnes less will be harvested this year than last year and you have to add 70,000 tonnes of contraband (that won't come) from Ghana," one exporter said. "We could easily see a total drop of about 120,000 tonnes."

The cedi currency of Ghana, the world's number 2 producer, plummeted in the early months of 2014, creating a discrepancy in the price it paid its cocoa farmers and the amount received by growers in Ivory Coast.

As Ghanaian farmers began selling their beans across the border to take advantage of the higher price there, exporters and analysts estimate that 60,000 to 100,000 tonnes of cocoa were trafficked into Ivory Coast.

Ghana set a higher farmer price at the start of the 2014/15 season though and the central bank has managed to stabilise the cedi, meaning little smuggling has been recorded this season.

Meanwhile crop development on plantations in the south-west and central-west regions, which account for 75 percent of national output, has been hit hard by this year's intense heat and exceptionally harsh Harmattan desert winds.

"It has been very hot since November, the flowers and pods that appeared early on have all dropped off or turned yellow," said Raymond Kolea as he cut away dead branches at his eight-hectare plantation near Soubre.

Exporters said the survival rates for flowers and cherelles (young pods) in the cocoa heartland was around 40 percent lower than during the same period last season.

"Last year it rained all the time so there were lots of flowers and pods that were already on the trees very early," said Ali Demba, a farmer from Meagui, as he dried his last beans of the main crop. "This year, and we see nothing on the plantations."