11.02.2015, 11:04
Fitch Affirms International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Bank at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable
OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Bank's (IBRD) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'AAA' with a Stable Outlook and its Short-term IDR at 'F1+'. IBRD's senior unsecured debt has also been affirmed at 'AAA'.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The affirmation and Stable Outlook reflect the following key rating factors:
Asset quality is a key rating strength for IBRD. The average rating of loans and guarantees was 'BBB-' at end-FY14, and amongst the strongest rating amongst Fitch-rated multilateral development banks' (MDB) balance sheets. IBRD does not have any equity stakes as part of its development activities, or any direct non-sovereign exposures. Non-performing loans at 0.3% of gross loans at FY14 are amongst the lowest for MDBs, reflecting the bank's widely upheld preferred creditor status.
The quality of IBRD's liquid assets is robust, with 75.6% of the portfolio rated 'AA-' or higher. However, IBRD's liquidity has typically been lower than other 'AAA' rated peers, with liquid assets covering short-term debt by just 117% at end-FY14. Prudent management and the short-term duration of the liquidity portfolio enhance IBRD's liquidity profile. IBRD also enjoys good access to international capital markets and a diversified source of funding across investors and currencies.
IBRD's capitalisation is robust and consistent with the 'AAA' rated MDBs, but is at the weaker end of the 'AAA' spectrum. A capital increase agreed in FY11 will mean IBRD's paid-in capital increases by USD5.1bn between FY11 and FY16, with a further USD2.6bn to be paid in between FY14 and FY16. However, capitalisation should improve only moderately as Fitch expects the loan portfolio to report moderate growth in the forecast horizon, and as the bank maintains its annual transfers (FY14: USD635m) to its sister organisation - the International Development Association.
The equity-to-adjusted-assets ratio (end-FY14: 18.2% down from 20.1% at end-FY13) and leverage ratio (end-FY14: 421.7% up from 378.1% at end-FY13) weakened somewhat in FY14 due to a substantial net income loss (-USD978m) in FY14. It was largely due to the realisation of previously unrealised marked to market gains on the derivatives hedging portfolio, lower earnings from equity funded loans, and unrealised losses on bonds issued by the troubled Austrian bank Hypo Alpe-Adria and held in the treasury portfolio.
Concentration risk is a key risk for MDBs, including IBRD. The share of the five largest exposures as a proportion of IBRD's total exposure was 43.7% at end-FY14, and is relatively low compared with 'AAA' regional MDBs. However, Fitch expects this metric to worsen slightly in the forecast horizon due to the slight loosening of the single borrower limits on individual countries.
The risk management framework is conservative relative to peers, but Fitch notes that the rules and limits in the framework were loosened in FY14 to allow increased lending capacity for the bank. The concentration limits for single borrowers and the maximum average maturity for loans and guarantees have been increased slightly, while IBRD's main prudential risk management metric - the minimum equity-to-loans ratio - has been lowered to 20% from 23% (the equity-to-loans ratio was 25.7% at end-FY14).
Despite IBRD's rating being driven primarily by intrinsic factors, Fitch believes shareholder support from its 188 country members is strong and would be forthcoming should it be necessary. Support is provided through IBRD's callable capital (94% of subscribed capital). IBRD's key shareholders had an average rating of 'AA' at end-FY14, higher than that of the bank's peers. Due to the size of the bank's operations, its wide scope and important geopolitical role, as well as its recognised role in financing projects in many middle-income developing countries, the propensity of shareholders to support the bank is relatively strong compared with peers.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation that IBRD's credit profile will remain commensurate with the 'AAA' rating. IBRD's rating is driven primarily by its intrinsic factors.
- A significant deterioration of the ratings on IBRD's large borrowers, leading to a rise in non-performing assets, would likely put downward pressure on IBRD's rating.
- A sustained increase in concentration of IBRD's large loan exposures would increase the vulnerability of the bank to asset quality deterioration in one of these countries, and would lead to negative rating action.
- A deterioration in capitalisation due to rapid increase in lending, or due to substantial credit or market losses, would negatively affect the rating.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
The ratings and Outlooks are sensitive to a number of assumptions:
- Fitch assumes that most borrowing member states, even if experiencing severe difficulties, will preserve the bank's preferred creditor status should they decide to default selectively on their debt.
- Fitch assumes that IBRD will maintain its cautious stance on risk management and governance
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The affirmation and Stable Outlook reflect the following key rating factors:
Asset quality is a key rating strength for IBRD. The average rating of loans and guarantees was 'BBB-' at end-FY14, and amongst the strongest rating amongst Fitch-rated multilateral development banks' (MDB) balance sheets. IBRD does not have any equity stakes as part of its development activities, or any direct non-sovereign exposures. Non-performing loans at 0.3% of gross loans at FY14 are amongst the lowest for MDBs, reflecting the bank's widely upheld preferred creditor status.
The quality of IBRD's liquid assets is robust, with 75.6% of the portfolio rated 'AA-' or higher. However, IBRD's liquidity has typically been lower than other 'AAA' rated peers, with liquid assets covering short-term debt by just 117% at end-FY14. Prudent management and the short-term duration of the liquidity portfolio enhance IBRD's liquidity profile. IBRD also enjoys good access to international capital markets and a diversified source of funding across investors and currencies.
IBRD's capitalisation is robust and consistent with the 'AAA' rated MDBs, but is at the weaker end of the 'AAA' spectrum. A capital increase agreed in FY11 will mean IBRD's paid-in capital increases by USD5.1bn between FY11 and FY16, with a further USD2.6bn to be paid in between FY14 and FY16. However, capitalisation should improve only moderately as Fitch expects the loan portfolio to report moderate growth in the forecast horizon, and as the bank maintains its annual transfers (FY14: USD635m) to its sister organisation - the International Development Association.
The equity-to-adjusted-assets ratio (end-FY14: 18.2% down from 20.1% at end-FY13) and leverage ratio (end-FY14: 421.7% up from 378.1% at end-FY13) weakened somewhat in FY14 due to a substantial net income loss (-USD978m) in FY14. It was largely due to the realisation of previously unrealised marked to market gains on the derivatives hedging portfolio, lower earnings from equity funded loans, and unrealised losses on bonds issued by the troubled Austrian bank Hypo Alpe-Adria and held in the treasury portfolio.
Concentration risk is a key risk for MDBs, including IBRD. The share of the five largest exposures as a proportion of IBRD's total exposure was 43.7% at end-FY14, and is relatively low compared with 'AAA' regional MDBs. However, Fitch expects this metric to worsen slightly in the forecast horizon due to the slight loosening of the single borrower limits on individual countries.
The risk management framework is conservative relative to peers, but Fitch notes that the rules and limits in the framework were loosened in FY14 to allow increased lending capacity for the bank. The concentration limits for single borrowers and the maximum average maturity for loans and guarantees have been increased slightly, while IBRD's main prudential risk management metric - the minimum equity-to-loans ratio - has been lowered to 20% from 23% (the equity-to-loans ratio was 25.7% at end-FY14).
Despite IBRD's rating being driven primarily by intrinsic factors, Fitch believes shareholder support from its 188 country members is strong and would be forthcoming should it be necessary. Support is provided through IBRD's callable capital (94% of subscribed capital). IBRD's key shareholders had an average rating of 'AA' at end-FY14, higher than that of the bank's peers. Due to the size of the bank's operations, its wide scope and important geopolitical role, as well as its recognised role in financing projects in many middle-income developing countries, the propensity of shareholders to support the bank is relatively strong compared with peers.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation that IBRD's credit profile will remain commensurate with the 'AAA' rating. IBRD's rating is driven primarily by its intrinsic factors.
- A significant deterioration of the ratings on IBRD's large borrowers, leading to a rise in non-performing assets, would likely put downward pressure on IBRD's rating.
- A sustained increase in concentration of IBRD's large loan exposures would increase the vulnerability of the bank to asset quality deterioration in one of these countries, and would lead to negative rating action.
- A deterioration in capitalisation due to rapid increase in lending, or due to substantial credit or market losses, would negatively affect the rating.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
The ratings and Outlooks are sensitive to a number of assumptions:
- Fitch assumes that most borrowing member states, even if experiencing severe difficulties, will preserve the bank's preferred creditor status should they decide to default selectively on their debt.
- Fitch assumes that IBRD will maintain its cautious stance on risk management and governance
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