Fitch Affirms Cabela's Credit Card Master Note Trust
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The affirmation is based on continued positive trust performance. Gross yield has remained stable since last review due to increasing interchange revenue and a favorable LIBOR base rate. As of the January 2015 reporting period, the 12-month average gross yield was 19.62%, down slightly from the 12-month average of 19.81% at the January 2014 reporting period.
Monthly payment rate (MPR), a measure of how quickly consumers are paying off their credit card balance, has decreased over the past year. Currently the 12-month average is 41.19%, down slightly from 42.44% at the January 2014 reporting period. Cabela's MPR is well above the industry average due to the high concentration of transactors and prime borrowers. The Fitch Prime Credit Card Index was 28.65% for the January 2015 reporting period.
Gross chargeoffs have continued to improve over the past year. Currently the 12-month average is 1.95%, down from 2.07% at the January 2014 reporting period. Year over year, 60+ day delinquencies are down 17.39% from this point last year. Fitch expects chargeoff levels to remain stable in the near term given the high quality of the credit card portfolio.
Fitch runs cash flow breakeven analysis by applying stress scenarios to 3-, 6-, and 12-month performance averages to evaluate the breakeven loss multiples at different rating levels. The performance variables that Fitch stresses are the gross yield, monthly payment rate, gross charge-off, and purchase rates. Fitch's analysis included a comparison of observed performance trends over the past few months to Fitch's base case expectations for each outstanding rating category. As part of its ongoing surveillance efforts, Fitch will continue to monitor the performance of these trusts. For further information, please review the U.S. Credit Card ABS Issuance updates published on a monthly basis.
The affirmations are based on the performance of the trusts in line with expectations. The Stable Outlook indicates that Fitch expects the ratings will remain stable for the next one to two years.
Fitch's analysis included a comparison of observed performance trends over the past few months to Fitch's base case expectations for each outstanding rating category. As part of its ongoing surveillance efforts, Fitch will continue to monitor the performance of this trust.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Fitch models three different scenarios when evaluating the rating sensitivity compared to expected performance for credit card asset-backed securities transactions: 1) increased defaults; 2) a reduction in MPR, and 3) a combination stress of higher defaults and lower MPR.
Increasing defaults alone has the least impact on rating migration even in the most severe scenario of a 75% increase in defaults. The rating sensitivity to a reduction in MPR is more pronounced with a moderate stress, of a 25% reduction, leading to possible downgrades across all classes. The harshest scenario assumes both stresses occur simultaneously. Similarly, the ratings would only be downgraded under the moderate stress of a 40% increase in defaults and 20% reduction in MPR; however, the severe stress could lead to more drastic downgrades to all classes.
To date, the transactions have exhibited strong performance with all performance metrics within Fitch's initial expectations. For further discussion of our sensitivity analysis, please see the new issue report related to one of the transactions listed below.
Fitch has affirmed the following classes as indicated:
Cabela's Credit Card Master Note Trust Series 2010-II:
--Class A-1 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class A-2 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class B at 'A+sf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class C at 'BBB+sf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class D at 'BB+sf'; Outlook Stable.
Cabela's Credit Card Master Note Trust Series 2011-II:
--Class A-1 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class A-2 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class B at 'A+sf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class C at 'BBB+sf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class D at 'BB+sf'; Outlook Stable.
Cabela's Credit Card Master Note Trust Series 2011-IV:
--Class A-1 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class A-2 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class B at 'A+sf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class C at 'BBB+sf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class D at 'BB+sf'; Outlook Stable.
Cabela's Credit Card Master Note Trust Series 2012-I:
--Class A-1 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class A-2 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class B at 'A+sf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class C at 'BBB+sf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class D at 'BB+sf'; Outlook Stable.
Cabela's Credit Card Master Note Trust Series 2012-II:
--Class A-1 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class A-2 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class B at 'A+sf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class C at 'BBB+sf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class D at 'BB+sf'; Outlook Stable.
Cabela's Credit Card Master Note Trust Series 2013-I:
--Class A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class B at 'A+sf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class C at 'BBB+sf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class D at 'BB+sf'; Outlook Stable.
Cabela's Credit Card Master Note Trust Series 2013-II:
--Class A-1 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class A-2 at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class B at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class C at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class D at 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable.
Cabela's Credit Card Master Note Trust Series 2014-I:
--Class A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class B at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class C at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class D at 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable.
Cabela's Credit Card Master Note Trust Series 2014-II:
--Class A at 'AAAsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class B at 'Asf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class C at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Stable;
--Class D at 'BBsf'; Outlook Stable.
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