OREANDA-NEWS. The economic uncertainty implied by the Bank of Canada's surprise interest rate cut on Wednesday could be detrimental for home prices, especially in energy-dependent provinces such as Alberta, Fitch Ratings says.

Fitch views Canadian house prices as 20% overvalued compared to long-term economic fundamentals. Prices grew over the last several years despite low levels of affordability and high household-debt-to-income ratios. We forecast prices to rise by 2.5% in 2015 based on continuing market momentum.

However, the potential economic weakness resulting from lower energy prices raises the risk of some local price downturns. Nationally, 6% of Canadian GDP is from oil and gas extraction, while in Alberta, it represents more than 25% of total economic production. The Bank of Canada lowered its national GDP forecast for 2015 to 2.1% from 2.4%, based on the expectation that oil prices will stabilise at USD60/bbl. Fitch anticipates that near-term West Texas Intermediate crude prices, currently below USD50/bbl, will remain below the long-term price assumption of USD75/bbl.

The impact could be acutely felt in energy-producing regions. In Calgary and Edmonton, Alberta, home sales fell 25% from November to December. While some of this decline is attributable to seasonality, this is the largest decline in sales since the financial crisis and does not yet reflect the full economic impact of lower energy prices.

Historically, Alberta's 90+ day mortgage delinquencies have correlated closely with oil prices and have been significantly more volatile than for the country as a whole. Delinquencies rose from 0.32% to 0.65% as oil prices fell from February 1993 to February 1996. When West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell from USD140/bbl to USD40/bbl during the 2008 credit crisis, delinquencies rose by nearly five times, up to 0.83%. Nonetheless, current delinquency levels are low, at 0.27% of outstanding mortgages secured by properties in the province at the end of the third quarter of 2014.

Overall, the Bank of Canada rate cut is not expected to have a significant impact on borrowers, since early indications are that most lenders do not expect to pass through lower mortgage rates as a result. The rate cut will keep mortgage rates near historical lows and forestall any payment stress. Fitch had previously projected an increase in mortgage rates of 40bps in 2015, but now forecasts rates to be stable with modest pressure near the end of the year.