OREANDA-NEWS. January 15, 2015. China’s largest energy producer has warned the country could fall short of an official consumption target for the end of this decade, implying a slowdown that carries huge implications for big gas producers targeting the Chinese market.

It will be "very difficult" for China to achieve a consumption level of 360 billion cubic metres per year by 2020 – a target unveiled by the central government in November – said Qian Xingkun, vice director of China National Petroleum Corp.’s (CNPC’s) Economics and Technology Research Institute. "As the market environment home and abroad has shifted and is changing dramatically, the uncertainties in demand, supply, price, trade and policy will pose more challenges for the gas industry’s healthy and sustainable development."

Chinese gas use has grown nearly sevenfold since the start of the century, from 24.5 bcm in 2000 to 168 bcm in 2013. But to reach 360 bcm in 2020, China would need to average annual growth of 30 bcm to the end of the decade, according to Qian.

That would be unusually high – even for China, which has become the third-largest gas importer in the world since bringing in its first cargo in 2006. Between 2000 and 2013, yearly consumption rose by an average of 11 bcm – peaking at 23 bcm in 2011.

"It is very difficult to realise the goals in view of experiences in foreign countries and the current domestic situation," said Qian in an article on CNPC’s website.

Chinese consumption growth in 2014 looks set to have increased by single digits for the first year since 2007. Usage in the first 11 months of 2014 grew by 7.4% to 159.2 bcm, compared with 12.3% in the same period between 2012 and 2013.

A domestic economic slowdown and higher fuel costs stemming from price reforms have sapped some demand momentum in the country’s gas market, prompting the government to slash consumption targets.

Beijing said in April 2014 that usage would reach at least 400 bcm by 2020, only to lower that to 360 bcm in November as the extent of the squeeze became apparent. Qian gave an even more conservative prediction of 310 bcm.

Future gas demand will be mainly driven by large-scale development of gas-fired power generation, the switching from coal to gas in industry, and the transport sector.

"But at present, these [sectors] are seriously constrained by our energy pricing system," said Qian. "How to develop a reasonable price and policies to balance demand and supply (especially imports) tests the government’s determination and wisdom."