OREANDA-NEWS. After a decline in demand for cars in 2015, the Russian car dealers expect that the market will begin to recover in 2016 or 2017. The recent substantial devaluation of the ruble, influenced the operations of the dealers can adjust expectations both in rate of decline in the market, and the time of its recovery. These data were obtained in a survey, conducted at the beginning of December 2014 by EY Company, together with the association "Russian Automobile Dealers" (ROAD).

According to the results of a study on the development prospects of the industry and plans of Russian dealers of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, 34% of them, despite of the situation in the market, will not delay the implementation of investment projects on development of dealer network and do not plan to cut staff. 69% of respondents believe that the current decline in demand for cars may lead to industry consolidation. More than a third of companies are considering mergers or acquisitions, and 77% of respondents - the sale of individual dealerships. 60% of respondents expect that the recovery of growth will begin in 2016, and according to 37% it will happen in 2017. 45% of respondents predict a decline in 2015 by more than 15%, while one-fifth of respondents believe that it will exceed 20%. According to dealers, the segment of premium cars will be more resistant to fall than the mass. The average expected rate of decline in sales in the premium segment is 7%, and in the mass - 19%. 83% of the participants of study named the extension of the recycling program as the most effective measure of state support. The most effective of the additional measures, according to 66% of the respondents is the subsidizing of car loans and development of programs of preferential lending.

"In the face of falling demand and excess of dealerships in the next year in the industry it will be a tendency of business consolidation and growth in the number of transactions on financial restructuring. Small companies will leave the market or they will be acquired by large players - says a senior manager, team leader for the provision of services to the automotive industry in the CIS of company EY, Andrei Tomyshev. - "Current consensus-forecasts of economic development show a possible continuation of the decline in demand in the automotive market in 2016. It will depend on macroeconomic factors, as well as on the amount of reduction in demand in 2015. The most resilient to the downturn will be a company with a diversified portfolio of brands, including premium brands, as well as companies with good business development of used cars. Despite the decline, the Russian car market is characterized by significant long-term potential to be realized by increasing the level of motorization and update of outdated parc. Concessional lending along with the extension of the recycling program will have a positive impact on demand in the short term. In the long term, effective measures could be the introduction of restrictions on the maximum age of the car, the development of capacity utilization, the replacement of vehicle tax to environmental one and measures aimed at cheaper cost of owning of a car".

It remains to add that the survey was attended by the heads of 64 companies, dealerships of which are represented in Moscow and the Moscow region and other regions of the Central Federal District, in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, the Volga, Ural and Siberian Federal District.