OREANDA-NEWS. Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Viability Ratings (VRs) of two Ukrainian banks, PJSC CB PrivatBank's (Privat) and ProCredit Bank (Ukraine) (PCBU) to 'ccc' from 'b-'. At the same time, the agency has affirmed the VR of PJSC Credit Agricole Bank (CAB) at 'b-'.

The VRs of the three banks have been removed from Rating Watch Negative (RWN). Fitch placed these ratings on RWN in August 2014 following the downgrade of Ukraine's Long-term local currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC'. Following today's actions, Privat and PCBU's VRs are in line with the sovereign's IDRs, whereas CAB's is a notch higher, implying moderate resilience of the bank's stand-alone profile to a sovereign default.

The Long-term foreign currency IDRs of all three banks have been affirmed at 'CCC'. CAB and PCBU's IDRs are underpinned by potential support from foreign shareholders, whereas Privat's are driven solely by the bank's stand-alone strength. A full list of rating actions is provided at the end of this rating action commentary.

KEY RATING DRIVERS - VIABILITY RATINGS (VRs)
The downgrade of Privat's VR to 'ccc' from 'b-' reflects weaknesses in the bank's key financial metrics, as a result of which Fitch does not believe it is appropriate to rate the bank above the sovereign.

The bank's deposit base contracted by 21% (net of exchange rate effects) in 9M14, and the bank has utilised funding from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to support is liquidity position. Highly liquid assets (cash and equivalents and short-term unencumbered interbank placements), net of wholesale repayments in the next 12 months, were equal to a moderate 14% of total customer deposits at end-10M14. Foreign currency (FC) liquidity of USD1bn at end-10M14 comfortably covered the USD200m eurobond due in September 2015, but is dependent on deposit stability.

Pressure on capital has been considerable due to asset inflation following devaluation, and higher funding and credit risk costs, which have hit bottom line performance. The regulatory total capital ratio was 10.96% at end-3Q14 (minimum level: 10%), and the planned equity injection of UAH4bn in 4Q14-2015 (equal to 19% of current equity) will provide only moderate capital support.
Under local GAAP, Privat became loss-making on a quarterly basis in 3Q14 but still reported positive 9M14 results; pre-impairment profit, adjusted for accrued revenues not paid in cash, became negative in 1H14 IFRS. Performance will remain subdued in the near term due to continued margins pressure and further loan impairment charges.

Reported non-performing loans (NPLs; loans overdue by more than 90 days) were a moderate 6.6% of loans at end-1H14, slightly up from 5.9% from end-2013, and reported restructured exposures contributed a further 2.8% (end-2013: 2.7%). At the same time, individually impaired loans not yet past due (18.5% of gross loans), are a source of additional risk, as is the bank's large exposure to the oil trading sector (22%). Total loan impairment reserve (LIR) coverage of problem exposures (NPLs and restructured) and individually impaired loans was a modest 43% at end-1H14.

The downgrade of PCBU's VR to 'ccc' from 'b-' reflects deterioration in the bank's asset quality and the potential for further impairment, given significant exposure to Donetsk region (9.5% of end-3Q14 loans), the material portion of FC-lending (35% of net loans), recent rapid lending growth (up by 51% in 11M14, adjusted for exchange rate effects) and the weakening operating environment. NPLs were a moderate at 3.2% of loans at end-3Q14, but restructured loans (split evenly between standard exposures and 'watch and impaired' categories) comprised a further 20%, up from 12.4% at end-2013.

Reserves provided modest 43% coverage of NPLs and 'watch and impaired' loans at end-3Q14, and the regulatory capital ratio of 10.5% at end-11M14 provided limited loss absorption capacity. Annualised pre-impairment profit (adjusted for interest income accrued but not received in cash, equal to 3.3% of average gross loans in 9M14)and capital support measures, both equity and subordinated debt, a total of EUR9m in 4Q14-1Q15 could provide moderate support for capital ratios. The liquidity position remains stable, underpinned by a growing deposit and limited wholesale refinancing risks.

The affirmation of CAB's VR at 'b-' reflects the bank's materially lower levels of loan impairment compared with most Ukrainian peers, in part reflecting the low-risk nature of its business with parent group clients (36% of end-3Q14 loans) and limited exposure to Eastern Ukraine/Crimea (below 7% of loans). The affirmation also takes into account low recent growth; manageable exposure to FX risks; solid financial performance and reasonable liquidity. At the same time, the VR also reflects the high-risk operating environment and significant dollarization of lending (end-3Q14: 44% of loans), although in most cases to exporting borrowers.

CAB's NPLs and restructured loans accounted for 3% and 5% of gross loans, respectively, at end-3Q14, each up from 1.9% at end-2013. Impairment reserves at 6.6% of end-3Q14 loans were sufficient to cover all of these problem exposures by 82%; the regulatory capital ratio stood at 12.6% at end-3Q14. Sizeable pre-impairment profit (a non-annualised 7.7% of average gross loans in 9M14; 5.3% in 2013) provide a large additional loss absorption buffer. CAB's liquidity is comfortable and the deposit base has grown in 2014, underpinned by stable long-term relationships with core clientele.

KEY RATING DRIVERS - IDRS, NATIONAL RATINGS, SENIOR DEBT AND SUPPORT RATINGS
The downgrade of Privat's Long-term local currency IDR to 'CCC' from 'B-' is driven by the downgrade of its VR. The Long-term foreign currency IDR of 'CCC' is also in line with the bank's VR, and capped by Ukraine's Country Ceiling. The affirmation of Privat's senior debt rating at 'CC'/'RR5' reflects potentially below average recovery prospects for senior creditors given bondholders subordination to retail deposits (56% of non-equity funding at end-3Q14) and significant asset encumbrance (31% of gross loans pledged against NBU funding).

Privat's Support Rating of '5' and Support Rating Floor of 'No Floor' reflect Fitch's view that support cannot be relied upon given the limited ability of the sovereign to provide support and limited transparency on the ability of the bank's shareholders to provide assistance.

The IDRs, Support Ratings, National Ratings and, where assigned, senior unsecured debt ratings of PCBU and CAB are underpinned by the support the banks may receive from their majority shareholders. PCBU is controlled (60% of voting stock) by ProCredit Holding AG & Co. KGaA. (BBB/Stable), and CAB is fully owned by Credit Agricole S.A. (A/Stable). The 'CCC' Long-term foreign currency IDRs are capped at Ukraine's Country Ceiling, and the 'B-' Long-term local currency IDRs also take account of country risks.

The affirmation of the three banks' National ratings reflects Fitch's view that their creditworthiness relative to other Ukrainian issuers has not changed significantly.

RATING SENSITIVITIES - ALL RATINGS
The IDRs, debt ratings (Privat, PCBU) and VRs of all three banks remain highly correlated with the sovereign credit profile. The ratings could be downgraded in case of a further downgrade of the sovereign, or stabilise at their current levels if downward pressure on the sovereign ratings abates. The banks' IDRs and debt ratings could also be downgraded in case of restrictions being imposed on their ability to service their obligations. The VRs are likely to be downgraded if further deterioration in the economic environment materially affects the banks' credit metrics, without sufficient support being provided by shareholders.

The Stable Outlook on the National Ratings reflects Fitch's view that any future deterioration in these banks' credit profiles is likely to be broadly in line with that of other Ukrainian issuers, meaning that the banks' default risk relative to other issuers will remain broadly unchanged.

The 'CCC' LC IDR for Ukraine implies that Fitch considers a sovereign default a real possibility. This indicates heightened cliff risk for high ratings on the National scale as, by definition, National and International ratings converge at 'D' (default), and hence National Ratings may be downgraded sharply from 'AAA(ukr)'.