09.12.2014, 22:18
RiskMap 2015: The New World Disorder
OREANDA-NEWS. Control Risks, the global business risk consultancy, today publishes its annual RiskMap report, an established authoritative guide and a key reference point for policy makers and business leaders seeking to plot global trends over the coming year. RiskMap highlights the most significant underlying trends in global risk and security, and provides a detailed view from the markets that will matter most in 2015.
Introducing RiskMap 2015, Richard Fenning, CEO, Control Risks, commented:
"2015 will be a difficult year for business as the lines between what have always been considered 'safe' and 'risky' opportunities blur. Opportunities will continue to abound for ambitious international companies. But uncertain economics and volatile politics will make 2015 more than usually challenging."
"The US and Europe will exercise waning international influence and their leaders will need to focus more on national issues and politics. Business culture and practices of multinational companies will meet increasing resistance from emerging powers who will want to exert more control over supply chains. National governments will find it more difficult to protect their companies in these disputes.
"Increasing technological sophistication and weak state power will combine to render the threat from cyber-attack, kidnap and terrorism more severe. How one deals with the inevitable attack, as opposed to how one stops it, will become the key question.
"Global governance's failure to deal with the above issues will continue in 2015, leaving business to navigate these pitfalls against a backdrop of continuing conflict and fragmentation of global political consensus."
RiskMap's assessment of political and security risk encompasses the potential negative impact on business operations through political instability and intervention; the influence of societal and structural factors; as well as actions that harm the financial, physical and human assets of a company.
There are a number of key trends for 2015:
· Transnational terrorism continues to be an increasing threat. Competition for leadership of the global jihadist movement between al-Qaida and Islamic State (IS) will drive further fragmentation. IS has threatened attacks against Western countries. But terrorism in Africa (Nigeria, Mali, Somalia) will remain a local issue with terrorist groups generally unable to hold territory.
· Maritime piracy remains a threat, but onshore threats of crime, corruption, labour unrest and conflict are a more impactful risk to shipping companies. Piracy in East Africa will continue to decline but West Africa will become a piracy hotspot.
· Technology is changing the face of kidnapping and extortion, through so-called virtual kidnapping, social media reconnaissance and cyber extortion.
· Cyber threats continue to grow. Terrorists and activists are using common platforms. Weak law enforcement in many parts of the world is encouraging cyber-crime. Supply chains are likely to be a more prominent target of cyber-attack.
Specific regional issues highlighted in RiskMap 2015 include:
· Russia and the West have entered a fundamentally new stage of relations; Russia's interference in Ukraine will persist; Western businesses' risk appetite for Russia will worsen.
· China: companies will get little relief from the government's anti-corruption and anti-monopoly regime in 2015; maritime disputes in the South and East China will remain the main source of geopolitical friction; China will continue to challenge the status quo.
· Iran: negotiations may result in a further thaw, with business opportunities opening up.
· Iraq and Syria: no clear chance of resolution. IS cannot be defeated by airstrikes alone and no credible ground forces are available. Collapse into full-scale sectarian violence in Iraq is a real risk.
· Libya's outlook will clarify for the worse; Egypt faces continuing internal threats.
· Africa's rapid growth has outpaced political reform. Growth happens despite government. South Africa remains unstable. Nigerian elections in 2015 will be accompanied by violence, but a democratic result is likely.
· The Latin American drugs trade will adapt to legalisation in the US and growing consumption among Latin America's middle classes.
· Mexico will be more attractive than Brazil as an investment destination.
For the full report please click here and to view the Map please follow this link.
About Control Risks
Control Risks is a global risk consultancy specialising in political, security and integrity risk. The company enables its clients to understand and manage the risks of operating in complex or hostile environments. Through a unique combination of services, wide geographical reach and by adopting a close partnership approach with clients, Control Risks helps organisations effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.
Introducing RiskMap 2015, Richard Fenning, CEO, Control Risks, commented:
"2015 will be a difficult year for business as the lines between what have always been considered 'safe' and 'risky' opportunities blur. Opportunities will continue to abound for ambitious international companies. But uncertain economics and volatile politics will make 2015 more than usually challenging."
"The US and Europe will exercise waning international influence and their leaders will need to focus more on national issues and politics. Business culture and practices of multinational companies will meet increasing resistance from emerging powers who will want to exert more control over supply chains. National governments will find it more difficult to protect their companies in these disputes.
"Increasing technological sophistication and weak state power will combine to render the threat from cyber-attack, kidnap and terrorism more severe. How one deals with the inevitable attack, as opposed to how one stops it, will become the key question.
"Global governance's failure to deal with the above issues will continue in 2015, leaving business to navigate these pitfalls against a backdrop of continuing conflict and fragmentation of global political consensus."
RiskMap's assessment of political and security risk encompasses the potential negative impact on business operations through political instability and intervention; the influence of societal and structural factors; as well as actions that harm the financial, physical and human assets of a company.
There are a number of key trends for 2015:
· Transnational terrorism continues to be an increasing threat. Competition for leadership of the global jihadist movement between al-Qaida and Islamic State (IS) will drive further fragmentation. IS has threatened attacks against Western countries. But terrorism in Africa (Nigeria, Mali, Somalia) will remain a local issue with terrorist groups generally unable to hold territory.
· Maritime piracy remains a threat, but onshore threats of crime, corruption, labour unrest and conflict are a more impactful risk to shipping companies. Piracy in East Africa will continue to decline but West Africa will become a piracy hotspot.
· Technology is changing the face of kidnapping and extortion, through so-called virtual kidnapping, social media reconnaissance and cyber extortion.
· Cyber threats continue to grow. Terrorists and activists are using common platforms. Weak law enforcement in many parts of the world is encouraging cyber-crime. Supply chains are likely to be a more prominent target of cyber-attack.
Specific regional issues highlighted in RiskMap 2015 include:
· Russia and the West have entered a fundamentally new stage of relations; Russia's interference in Ukraine will persist; Western businesses' risk appetite for Russia will worsen.
· China: companies will get little relief from the government's anti-corruption and anti-monopoly regime in 2015; maritime disputes in the South and East China will remain the main source of geopolitical friction; China will continue to challenge the status quo.
· Iran: negotiations may result in a further thaw, with business opportunities opening up.
· Iraq and Syria: no clear chance of resolution. IS cannot be defeated by airstrikes alone and no credible ground forces are available. Collapse into full-scale sectarian violence in Iraq is a real risk.
· Libya's outlook will clarify for the worse; Egypt faces continuing internal threats.
· Africa's rapid growth has outpaced political reform. Growth happens despite government. South Africa remains unstable. Nigerian elections in 2015 will be accompanied by violence, but a democratic result is likely.
· The Latin American drugs trade will adapt to legalisation in the US and growing consumption among Latin America's middle classes.
· Mexico will be more attractive than Brazil as an investment destination.
For the full report please click here and to view the Map please follow this link.
About Control Risks
Control Risks is a global risk consultancy specialising in political, security and integrity risk. The company enables its clients to understand and manage the risks of operating in complex or hostile environments. Through a unique combination of services, wide geographical reach and by adopting a close partnership approach with clients, Control Risks helps organisations effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.
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