OREANDA-NEWS. October 31, 2014. Economists from the National Institute of Economic Researches (INCE) are more pessimistic about the evolution of the economy in 2014 and anticipate a two-per cent increase, a more moderate growth than the previous one, when they forecast a growth of 3.7 per cent. The estimations revised by INCE were unveiled at the launch of the last issue of the publication "Moldovan Economy Trends."  

"The domestic constraints to doing business, and in particular, the unfriendly external situation, have already determined a reduction of the tempos of industrial output's increase and contaminated several sectors of services," the authors of the publication said.

They also said "the political destabilisation and disturbing of the economic activity in the area of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as well as the toughening of the access of some Moldovan  to the Russian market" will result in a decrease of the growth tempo. The 3.9-per cent advance of the Moldovan economy in the first half of 2014 was one of the highest in the region.

"We cannot expect a growth tempo as high as in the first half,, after the embargoes put by Russia,, especially the last ones on fruits, vegetables and meat," INCE director Alexandru Stratan has told MOLDPRES. He also said that a minimum forecast figure was regarded, "taking into account the temperate tempos proved by the exports." Yet, the advance might be of more than two per cent, "if the evolutions recorded by the farming sector now continue."

Our forecasts have practically always come true, including last year, when we had a record increase of 8.9 per cent, and we anticipated a growth of  8-9 per cent," Alexandru Stratan said.  

In the first half of 2014, the national economy registered an yearly economic growth of 3.9 per cent - a good performance in comparison with other states of the region - Ukraine, Romania, Russia. The exports and the gross fixed capital formation  were the main factors to back the increase of the Gross Domestic Product  (GDP), INCE experts said. At the same time, they stressed that, despite these developments, the foreign investments were not coming. Thus, in the first half of 2014, the net flow of foreign direct investments  was at the lowest limit against the similar period of the last ten years, respectively 74.5 million dollars.

"Against the background of the tempering of the remittances, as well as of the real salary gains,  the real revenues of the residents exceeded by a few the level of the year before. This influenced the anaemic evolution of the domestic consumption in the first half of 2014. The varying of stocks negatively influenced the GDP's growth on this period, and their positive contribution in the second half is uncertain," the economists said.

The Economics Ministry has recently maintained the forecast of GDP's increase for 2014 at 3.5 per cent. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank expect a two-per cent growth of the Moldovan economy this year. The Expert Grup Independent Analytical Centre forecasts an advance of of 2.1 per cent, and in case of a pessimistic scenario, the growth might be of only 0.5 per cent.