OREANDA-NEWS. Sberbank Investment Research, the research department of Sberbank CIB, is publishing its ninth survey of the pan-Russian consumer, the Sberbank CIB Ivanov Consumer Confidence Tracker, which monitors consumer spending, savings and confidence trends across the country.

The ninth tracker indicates a dip in the consumer confidence index from the revised 2Q14 level of -6% to -7% in 3Q14 as inflation, unemployment and ruble depreciation concerns have risen amid geopolitical tension and the stuttering economy.

The main findings of the survey are shown survey below:
* The index of country wealth over the past 12 months slid from -16% in June to -19% in September, which Sberbank Investment Research associate with rising concerns about inflation, unemployment and ruble exchange rate. The number of respondents who said that their employer was firing staff rose from 23% to 24%. The country wealth index over the next 12 months also showed a decline, as Ivanovs have become less upbeat on the prospects for their employers.
* The big-ticket purchases index was the sole index component improving from -14% in June to -12% in September, probably mirroring the population's inflation and ruble depreciation fears as well as the overall shaky state of the economy. However, this was not reflected in the State Statistics Service's recent statistics showing on average 2.5% real growth in non-food retail turnover in June-August versus 4.9% in 5m14. So Sberbank Investment Research are not very excited about the outlook for non-food sales in 2H14 given the stalling economy and decelerating wage growth.
* Unemployment edged up 70 bps Q-o-Q to 10.0%, while the net hiring index was broadly flat Q-o-Q at -33% in 3Q14, as almost 50% described headcounts in their companies as stable. That said, Ivanovs became less upbeat on the prospects for their employers. The share of businesses expected to grow over the next 12 months declined from 31% to 30%. Average wages rose from R29,500 in June to R30,100 in September, which brought down food expenditure as a share of Ivanovs' budgets from 40% to 38%.
* Savings data showed generally negative trends. The share of Ivanovs with no savings climbed from 37.0% in June to 42% in September, while the average share of monthly incomes saved declined from 9.2% in 2Q14 to 8.9% in 3Q14.
* The share of price-sensitive customers rose to 69% in September from 68% in June. That said, apart from a drop in consumption among food categories affected by the import ban, Sberbank Investment Research did not see any signs of trading down. The proportion of respondents who had cut discretionary spending did not change from the 2Q14 level.
* Overall food inflation was running at 11.5%, based on the Ivanovs' observations, though price increases at the public retail chains was significantly lower at just 6.2-6.7% y-o-y. This suggests that the value proposition of the largest chains has improved 4-5% and explains the redirection of customers to public retailers that have maintained elevated LFL sales growth. In our opinion, this trend can only intensify in light of the recent food import ban.
* Some 52% of respondents have felt the impact of the food import ban, either in the form of higher prices or product shortages. In light of this, 38% of Ivanovs have had to adjust their food spending patterns, reducing consumption of banned products or switching to cheaper alternatives. Ivanovs singled out meat and fish as the products with the fastest price growth (10.8% and 10.6%, respectively) followed by fruit (7.1%), dairy (6.6%) and vegetables (5.4%).
* The apparent scale of promotions fell across the board: 45% of respondents thought that food stores were featuring more promotions in September, compared with 50% in June. Sberbank Investment Research could therefore see decent margins in 3Q14.