OREANDA-NEWS. Production of passenger cars in Russia in 2014 may decrease by 2% compared to 2013, in accordance with the approved macroeconomic forecast of Ministry of Economic Development until 2017.

Production of passenger cars in Russia in 2013 fell by 2% to 1.9 million units, says the agency "ITAR-TASS". Consequently, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic, the production in 2014 may reach 1.86 million units. In this case, the Ministry of Economic forecasts the growth of car production in 2015 by 2.5% (1.9 mln. units), in 2016 - by 3.7% (1.97 million units), in 2017 - by 4, 6% (2.06 million units). In 2017, as predicted by MED, compared with 2013 the production of cars will increase by 9%.

Truck production will decline in 2014 by 16.5%, says the MED. In 2013, truck production was 209,000 units, so in 2014 the production could reach 174.5 thousand units. At the same time in 2015, the production could increase by 1.2% (176.6 thousand trucks), in 2016 - by 2.8% (179.4 thousand units), in 2017 - by 5.5% (up to 189.3 thousand units). In 2017, the Ministry of Economic Development predicts the drop in comparison with 2013 year by 8.4%.

"In this case, it is assumed the priority development of car production and a reduction in the share of imports (supported by the weakening of the exchange rate), which is necessary condition for the timely establishment of mechanisms to support and protect domestic auto companies, developed with account of the relevant standards and requirements of the WTO", - said MED in the forecast. - "Thus, the growth of production in 2017 compared with 2013 in the part of passenger cars is estimated at 9-12%, depending on the market situation (with the reduction of imports by almost 25%), which will lead to the increase of share of domestic products in the domestic market by 2017 year up to 70-72% in the part of passenger cars".

Ministry of Economic Development states that in the medium term there is a number of risks that could have a negative impact on the development of demand for motor vehicles, including the reduction in the rate of growth of real income of the population and the decline in commercial turnover of motor transport, as well as the low efficiency of measures to support and protect domestic automotive companies within the norms and requirements of the WTO. "In case of absence of adequate measures to protect the market situation, there are high risks of a sharp decline in production of motor vehicles", - reported in the MED.