OREANDA-NEWS. April 04, 2014. Representatives of the Russian financial market have met in a round table for a traditional, fifth talk with Alexei Vedev, director of the Center for Structural Research, Gaidar Economic Policy Institute (EPI).

The round table was attended by Oleg Preksin, Vice President of the Association of Russian Banks (ARB), Vice Chairman of the International Cooperation Committee, Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RUIE), and B20 sherpa. The round table was arranged by Sviaz-Bank (Vnesheconombank Group) and the International Analytics Unlimited Bank Club.

Alexei Vedev spoke about scenarios of Russia’s economic growth: “The Russian Ministry of Economic Development predicts growth at a rate of up to 3% a year until 2018. The EPI’s forecast is less optimistic – something between 1.9% and 2% between 2014 and 2016. The risks holding back growth include the slowdown of commodity turnaround, over-borrowing by the public, and the low ruble exchange rate that does not support competition over prices. In my view, bank takeovers and mergers is yet another unfavorable factor that kills competition.” According to Alexei Vedev, reassuring factors are growth in private and foreign investments in 2013, exports expanding with ruble devaluation, and a predicted increase in investment programs by state-owned companies: “It is not going to be an explosive boom, but it will inspire optimism about the future”

Alexei Grabarov, head of Sviaz-Bank’s Center for Monitoring and Analysis of Active Transactions, also drew the audience’s attention to the fact that the economies of Russia’s biggest trading partners, the European Union, in the first place, were showing encouraging signs of recovery in late 2013 and early 2014. In consequence, expanding demand set off by expected recovery for Russian exports may have a positive effect on the growth of Russian GDP. Devaluation of the ruble earlier this year has a further incentive for the Russian economy in this situation by making export-oriented industries more profitable. “Some 12% of Russian business executives say that devaluation of the ruble is a boon,” said Alexei Vedev.

Oleg Preksin offered a detailed overview of the activities of the Business Twenty (B20), of which Russia is a member. He discussed the “paradoxes” of the G20’s anti-crisis package, such as serious problems medium and small enterprises (MSE), innovation-driven organizations, and developing economies are facing in lending and investment operations because of their commitment to fulfill the provisions of the Basel III accord.

Much attention was given to the future of payment systems in Russia. “We have found that 96% of transactions are done through international payment systems in Russia and just 4% elsewhere,” said Svetlana Krivoruchko, director of the Payment Systems Center, Financial University under the Russian Government. “It is very logical in this situation,” she went on, “to consider establishment of a national payment system on the pattern of many West European countries, Belgium, in particular.”

The round table participants proceeded to discuss the future of the International Moscow Financial Center that has been under development since June 2008. Its infrastructure has been developed, and it only remains to turn back the outflow of capital and look for investment sources. “There is a future for it,” Mr.Vedev assured the audience.

The round table drew participants from Russian banks, insurance and consulting companies, and representatives of financial educational institutions.