OREANDA-NEWS.  February 12, 2014. During the press conference, where the first in this year Inflation Report was presented, the President of the National Bank of Moldova Dorin Dragutanu said that the updated base forecast provides the increase in the inflation level in 2014 by 0.7 percentage points compared with the earlier target- up to 5.4% and in 2015- by 0.5 percentage points- up to 4.8%.

According to Dragutanu, in the first half of 2014 inflation will amount to 5.7%, mainly due to the increase in the food prices. In 2015, the inflation level will be affected by the potential growth in regulated prices. Oil prices will continue to have a little impact on the inflation rate in comparison with the energy crises in 2010-2011.

At the same time, the President of the National Bank noted that these inflation forecasts are based on the fact that no significant external shocks will occur. The main disinflation risks are connected with the predictions of a slowdown in economic growth in the countries-partners of Moldova on the external trade, declining international oil, gas and food prices and possible tightening of migration conditions and trade with Russia. Reduction in money transfers in favor of individuals and decrease in the internal consumption of Moldova is also possible.

Inflation risks may arise in case of recovery in domestic consumption, as well as with the increase in the world oil prices. Dorin Dragutanu stressed that the coming years disinflation risks will dominate. According to NBM forecasts, the average annual inflation rate in Moldova in the next eight quarters will remain within the interval of ±1.5 percentage points from the target of 5%.