EBRD Increases Forecast for Moldovan GDP Growth to 8%
OREANDA-NEWS. January 23, 2014. This is stated in the new review of the Regional Economic Prospects published by EBRD. It should be noted that Moldova’s GDP growth by 8% predicted by EBRD in 2013 is the highest GDP’s growth indicator among Central and Eastern Europe countries.
Higher GDP growth in 2013 is predicted only in the Central Asia countries– Kyrgyzstan (10,5%), Mongolia (13%) and Turkmenistan (10,2%). GDP growth in Russia in 2013 will make 1,3%, in Romania - 2,5%. GDP recession by 0,8% is expected in the Ukraine. EBRD experts note that rates of economic growth in Moldova in III quarter 2013 grew due to a good harvest and continuing expansion of output and trade. At the same time, the investment activity remains "mute" that is aggravated by a weak business environment and bad corporate governance in banks.
Remittances of the labor migrants steadily grew within the first 9 months of 2013 though some signs of slowdown were registered by the end of the year. As EBRD experts note, given strong GDP growth of Moldova in 2013 (after the recession in 2012 due to drought), short-term prospects of economic growth are uncertain. Evolution of money transfers and external demand for the Moldavian goods will have crucial importance in 2014.
The trust of investors will depend on the completion of reforms connected with signing of the Agreement on RM association with the EU. It should be noted that, according to official data, Moldova’s GDP in January-September, 2013 grew by 8%, and totaled 73 billion 312 million lei.
There are no data available on the dynamics of Moldova’s GDP growth in 2013. Earlier the Ministry of Economy has officially raised the forecast of GDP growth of Moldova for 2013 from 4% to 5,5%, having declared that in 2014 it expects economic growth at the level of 4%. Subsequently the Deputy Prime Minister, the Minister of Economy of Moldova Valeriu Lazar told that in 2013 the predicted GDP’ s growth will make 8-9%.
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