OREANDA-NEWS. January 20, 2014. The Moldovan economy will recover in the next three years, after a 0.7-per cent drop recorded in 2012. The authors of the report forecast a 4.0-per cent economic rise in 2015, and respectively, 2016, above the average of Europe and Central Asia. The economy is expecting to record a 3.7-per cent growth in 2015 and a 3.8- per cent one in 2016.

Moldova’s current account deficit will increase from 6.1 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product in 2013 to 8.7 per cent in 2014, respectively, 9.6 per cent in 2015, and then will drop to 8.0-per cent of the GDP in 2016.

A prolonged recession in the euro zone, as well as a stronger than expected slowdown of the Russian economy would be a risk and would disadvantage, firstly, the countries having strong trade relations with these areas, including Moldova, according to the WB experts. They said that the slowdown of the Russian economy would affect the import demand, remittances, as well as the foreign investments.

The WB experts also note that the high level of indebtedness in the private sector represents a challenge in the region. The high level of indebtedness in such countries as: Bulgaria, Kazakhstan and Moldova enhance their sensitivity to the foreign financial changes and exchange rate. The development of the region in a medium perspective will largely depend on the achievements recorded in the structural reforms, including as regards the lack of production capacities, high level of unemployment and reduced competitiveness.

The WB experts forecast a 2.2-per cent increase in the Russian economy in 2014, 2.7 per cent in 2015 and 3.0 per cent in 2016. At the same time, in Ukraine, the economic growth will be lower, respectively, 2.0 per cent in 2014, 1.0 per cent in 2015 and 0.8 per cent in 2016. The economic growth forecasts for Romania stand at 2.5 per cent in 2014, 2.7 per cent in 2015 and, respectively, in 2016.

Moldova’s economy will increase by 4.0 per cent in 2014 and by 5 per cent in 2015, according to the forecasts by the Economics Ministry. The economy will increase due to the improvement of the economic and financial context at the international level, better promotion of exports, development and support of private enterprises by the state.

Also, the positive evolutions will be determined by continuing the structural reforms, developing the real economic sector, including by attraction of foreign direct investments in the national economy, promoting a prudent fiscal policy and implementing reforms meant to reduce the ineffective public expenses, according to the Economics Ministry.