OREANDA-NEWS.   Middle East oil supply is estimated to average 1.38 mb/d in 2013, a decline of 0.12 mb/d from the previous year and indicating a minor downward revision of 5 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. This revision came in the second half of the year to adjust for updated production data as well as for lower expectations for the third and fourth quarter. Oman’s production is estimated to average 0.94 mb/d in 2013, representing an increase of 20 tb/d from the previous year, unchanged from the last MOMR. The oil outputs in all quarters in 2013 are more or less steady. Oman’s main operator reported a minor increase in crude oil output during the first 11 months of 2013 compared with the same period a year earlier. On a quarterly basis, Oman’s supply in 2013 is expected to average 0.94 mb/d, 0.93 mb/d, 0.95 mb/d and 0.94 mb/d, respectively. During the first three quarters of 2013, the Middle East’s oil output decreased by 90 tb/d from the same period of 2012. On a quarterly basis, its supply in 2013 is estimated to average 1.48 mb/d, 1.35 mb/d, 1.36 mb/d and 1.34 mb/d, respectively.

Syria’s oil supply is expected to decline by 0.12 mb/d in 2013 to average 0.09 mb/d. The risks associated with Syria’s supply forecast are very high due to the lack of production data, the high level of uncertainty and ongoing security issues. Syria’s supply is estimated to average 0.10 mb/d in first three quarters of 2013, a decline of 0.12 mb/d from the previous year. Yemen’s oil supply is estimated to average 0.14 mb/d in 2013, a decline of 40 tb/d from the previous year. The security issue remains the main factor impacting Yemen’s oil supply with continued attacks on its oil infrastructure. During the first three quarters of 2013, Yemen’s oil production decreased by 40 tb/d to average 0.14 mb/d.