OREANDA-NEWS.  November 2013 was marked by a slight improvement of consumer confidence of Ukrainians*. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is 85.5, which is 1.5 higher than in October. Amid the expectations of signing the association agreement with the EU in the middle of November, the index of expected economic conditions in the country over the next five years grew the most since August 2012. It is proved by the data on Ukrainians’ consumer confidence survey conducted by GfK Ukraine on monthly basis.
In November 2013, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) improved by 1.5 p. and reached 85.5*.

Index of Current Situation lost 0.7 p. to 84.9.

The components of this index changed in the following way:

Index of Current Personal Financial Standing (х1) added 2.5 p. to 84.8;
Propensity to Consume (х5) lost 3.9 p. and reached 85.1.
Economic Expectations of the Population improved by 3 p. and reached 86. The components of this index changed in the following way:

Index of Expected Changes in Personal Financial Standing (х2) grew by 6.4 p. at once and reached 93.6;
Index of Expected Economic Conditions in the Country Over the Next Year (х3) deteriorated by 1.9 p. to 78.2;
Index of Expected Economic Conditions in the Country Over the Next Five Years (х4) improved by 4.3 p. to 86.1.
In November, the expectations of Ukrainians concerning the unemployment dynamics kept the improvement trend: the respective index is 135.4, which is 1.1 p. less than in October. Inflationary expectations also slightly improved: the respective index is 182.4, which is 1.3 less than in October. Concurrently, concerns of Ukrainians regarding hryvnia exchange rate in the nearest three months increased significantly: index of devaluation expectations added 15.1 p. at once and reached 134.9.

The following key trends were observed in November:

In November, the gap between the expected changes in personal financial standing and the expected economic conditions in the country over the next year deepened. The first index became the highest among all the five subindicies of the consumer confidence index, and the second index was the lowest, the difference between them reached 15 p.
However, the index of propensity to consume decreased under the influence of the negative expectations regarding upcoming economic prospects.
Amid the expectations of signing the association agreement with the EU in the middle of November, the index of expected economic conditions in the country over the next five years grew the most since August 2012.
The highest increase of consumer confidence was observed in small towns as well as in Central Ukraine, while a considerable drop in consumer confidence was found in the cities with the population over 500 thsd of people.
‘The better expectations concerning personal economic situation as compared to the expected economic conditions show the low level of trust the Ukrainians have in the economic policy, which poses a threat of further development of crisis. The public protests can make this trend even higher,’ as GfK Ukraine analysts comment.

* The survey was carried out within November 13-27, that is before the start of the large-scale public protest.