Russian Freight Rail Market Overview in October 2013
OREANDA-NEWS. In October 2013 freight transport volumes were down on both October 2012 and October 2011: freight volumes were at 105.9 mln tonnes (down 4.7%, or 5.3 mln tonnes year-on-year), while freight turnover was at 166.6 bln tonne-kilometres (down 2.3%, or 3.7 bln tonne-kilometres year-on-year).
Coal. In October 2013 26.5 mln tonnes of coal were transported (down 3.8% on October 2012), while freight turnover reached 66.5 bln tonne-kilometres (up 2.5% on October 2012). Domestic coal transport fell by 6.4% against October 2012 due to a reduction in the transport of coal on the Krasnoyarsk and Eastern Siberia railway. This situation arose as the result of 3 new hydroelectric generators being put into operation at the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydro electric power station in the last quarter of 2012 — early 2013. Export flows of coal increased by 1.5%.
The price of coal, meanwhile, grew by 3.6% to USD 85.50 per tonne against September 2013.
Oil. In October 2013, transportation of oil was at 19.8 mln tonnes (down 6.1%), with freight turnover at 29.9 bln tonne-kilometres (down 8.1%). The main reason for this decline was a 29% drop in the transportation of crude oil, and a 4% drop in the transportation of diesel fuel. However, bitumen freight increased by 44% and fuel oil by 1.4%. The price of Brent oil rose to USD 108.80 per barrel in comparison with September 2013.
Liquefied petroleum gas. In October 2013, transport volumes were at 3.1 mln tonnes (up 9.5%), with freight turnover at 6.8 bln tonne-kilometres (up 12.4%). Gas prices fell slightly in comparison with September 2013 to €26.30 MW/h. There was an increase in the transportation of all types of gas freight: NGL, gas fractionation products, butane and petroleum gas.
Construction materials. The total volume of construction material freight in October 2013 was 18.1 mln tonnes (down 10.5%), with freight turnover at 9.7 bln tonne-kilometres (down 2.8%). This fall was due to the reduction in the transportation of cement for construction of the Olympic site in Sochi and the Universiade in Kazan; granulated slag to Leningrad, Bryansk and Volgograd Regions and Bashkiria; and inert construction materials in Perm Territory.
Ferrous metals. In October 2013, transportation of ferrous metals was at 5.8 mln tonnes (down 1.7%), with freight turnover at 8.7 bln tonne-kilometres (down 2.4%). This fall was due to the reduction in shipments from Severstal, NLMK and ChMK.
Steel prices fell to the USD 525-per-tonne mark, which is still USD 15 above the level of October 2012.
Iron ore. In October 2013, transportation of iron ore was at 9.7 mln tonnes (down 2.1%), with freight turnover at 9.4 bln tonne-kilometres (down 20.8%). The price of iron ore rose slightly against the previous month to USD 131.90 per tonne, 11% up on October 2012 prices.
Grain. In October 2013, transportation of grain was at 1.8 mln tonnes (down 11.1%), with freight turnover at 3.3 bln tonne-kilometres (up 15.6%). Wheat prices grew to around USD 231 per tonne, 31% lower than in October 2012.
Fertilizers. In October 2013, transportation of grain was at 3.9 mln tonnes (up 10.3%), with freight turnover at 6.1 bln tonne-kilometres (up 6.4%). The price of DAP fell by USD 5 to around USD 490 per tonne compared to September 2013, USD 83 lower than in October 2012.
Rolling stock production
During October, the large Ukrainian manufactures of al types of rolling stock had their certification suspended. In October 7,070 units of rolling stock were produced (down 28%, or 2,800 fewer railcars compared with October 2012).
Russian manufacturers increased their focus on specific types of railcars — gondolas are manufactured at UVZ, TVSZ, Novokuznetsk, Barnaul and Novozybkov engineering plants. Oil tank cars are manufactured only at UVZ, gas tank cars only at VKM, box cars only at Altaivagon and Armavir Plant, platforms at ZMK, Transmash, Altaivagon and Roslavl Plant. Hoppers of all types are manufactured at Bryansk Plant. Promtraktor-Vagon alone has not occupied a specific niche, manufacturing all types of rolling stock, and moving from 4th place in the Russian Federation for output volumes in 2012 to 9th position in October 2013.
Gondolas. In October 2013, 2,831 gondolas were produced (down 45%, or 2,300 fewer units than in October 2012). Gondola prices were in the range of USD 50,000 to USD 51,000.
Oil tank cars. In October, 734 oil tank cars were produced (down 54%, or 849 fewer units than in October 2012). UVZ manufactured 520 oil tank cars, and Azovmash built 204. Oil tank car prices were in the range of USD 55,000 to USD 57,000.
Gas tank cars. 1,049 gas tank cars were built (up 85%, or 483 more than in October 2012). In line with increased gas freight volumes, VKM and Azovmash increased their production of gas tank cars. Prices for this type of rolling stock were in the range of USD 68,000 to USD 78,000.
Hoppers. In October 2013, 786 hoppers were produced (down 40%, or 516 fewer units than in October 2012). 332 grain hoppers, 230 mineral hoppers and 190 cement wagons were produced and the remaining 34 were ballast hoppers. The price for cement wagons ranged between USD 47,700 and USD 56,000; for grain hoppers it was between USD 52,600 and USD 61,000; for mineral hoppers it was between USD 49,900 and USD 54,000.
Box cars. In October 2013, 601 box cars were produced (down 10%, or 68 fewer units than in October 2012). The prices for box cars ranged between USD 60,500 and USD 65,000.
Platforms. In October 2013, 562 container platforms were produced (48% more than in October 2012) and 312 universal platforms were produced (twice as many units as in October 2012). The main driving force behind this growth in platform production was the increase in output from Transmash. Prices on all types of platforms ranged between USD 48,700 and USD 58,000.
Russian railcar operating leasing market
In October of this year tariffs on all types of rolling stock stabilised against indicators for September 2013. Only tariffs for oil tank cars and box cars fell slightly.
Tariffs for gondolas remained at their previous level of around USD 20—USD 21 per day. Daily tariffs for box cars fell by USD 1 to USD 32. Daily tariffs for universal and container platforms remained at their previous levels of USD 27 and USD 28, respectively. Tariffs for oil tank cars fell to USD 27—USD 34. Tariffs for new gas tank cars were around USD 47. Tariffs for chemical tankers were around USD 40-USD 42.
Russia’s rolling stock fleet
The average level of idle rolling stock in October 2013 was around 173,000 railcars. By our calculations, surplus rolling stock remained at 50,000–55,000 units. The average empty run ratio increased to 79.8% due to a 7.4% rise in the length of gondola empty runs and a 14.3% rise in the length of box car empty runs in comparison with September 2013. There was a fall in the production of parts for rolling stock. Following the decline in the production of railway wheels (output of fewer than 100,000 wheels per month), the production of automatic couplings fell by 20%. Meanwhile, imports of railcar castings from China, Europe and the USA came to a practical standstill: 220 railcar sets per month compared with 1,200 sets per month on average in 2012.
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