OREANDA-NEWS. Middle East oil production is estimated to decline by 0.10 mb/d in 2013 to average 1.40 mb/d, an upward revision of 15 tb/d from the last month. Bahrain’s supply experienced a minor upward revision, while Oman, Syria and Yemen forecasts remained steady compared to MOMR. Bahrain’s supply outlook was revised up by 15 tb/d on historical changes to average 0.21 mb/d in 2013, an increase of 20 tb/d compared to the previous year. Oman’s oil supply is forecast to increase by 20 tb/d to average 0.94 mb/d in 2013. More EOR investment is seen to support output in the future. The Rima EOR project is expected to support output soon. Yemen’s oil supply is expected to average 0.16 mb/d in 2013, a decline of 20 tb/d compared to the previous year. New attacks on the main pipeline were experienced in September. Syria’s oil supply is estimated to average 90 tb/d in 2013, a decline of 120 tb/d compared to the previous year. Data availability for Syria’s actual oil production is limited, which is creating difficulties in estimating the supply and checking the data. A high level of risk remains associated with the Middle East supply forecast mainly on political and data issues.

On a quarterly basis, Middle East oil production is seen to stand at 1.48 mb/d, 1.35 mb/d, 1.41 mb/d and 1.36 mb/d, respectively.