OREANDA-NEWS. September 18, 2013. There is the risk in the next few months that the annual inflation rate will fall below 5% ± 1.5 for a while, NBM.

The balance of inflationary risks during the next period will remain be influenced by external and internal factors with a pronunciation of deflationary ones, the press release of the National Bank of Moldova reads. Deflationary pressures stem from a decline in global food prices and a considerable slowdown in economic activities of major economic partners of Moldova.

A growth in global oil prices amidst increasing tensions in the Middle East and gradual recovery of the economy of the European Union may smooth, to a certain degree, disinflation. Seeing the evolution of the inflation in July and August the risk arises of some deflection from the NBM Inflation Projection published in August.

The deflection may be provoked by a more pronounced than expected decline in food prices and by aftermath of MDL devaluation influence on consumer price index. As NBM states, there is the risk that the annual inflation rate will fall below 5% ± 1.5 for a while.