OREANDA-NEWS. In the first half of 2013, freight transport volumes continued to decline: total freight volumes were at 606 mln tn (down 3.6% y-o-y), while freight turnover was at 1,069 bln tkm (down 2.9% y-o-y), representing a decline of 22.8 mln tn and 32.3 bln tkm, respectively.

Coal. In H1 ‘13, 152 mln tn of coal were transported (an increase of 1% from the same period in 2012), while freight turnover reached 374 bln tkm (up 4.4% from H1 2012). It should be noted that the increase in turnover was thanks solely to export flows to China, Japan and the EU. Domestic freight turnover fell by 7% to 74 bln tkm. Coal prices fell to USD 74 per tonne, with the price at H1 2012 having been in the range of USD 90-USD 120 per tonne.

Oil. H1 ’13 transport volumes were 125 mln tn (down 3.0%), while freight turnover was at 192 bln tkm (down 4.8%). Turnover on exports fell by 9% y-o-y, totalling 96.5 bln tkm, predominantly due to a decrease in exports of crude oil to China. At the same time exports of fuel oil and petroleum increased. The start of 2013 saw an increase in the price of oil (from USD 109 to USD 117 per barrel), however in the spring the price fell to USD 102 per barrel.

Liquefied petroleum gas. In H1 ’13, the transportation of liquefied petroleum gas increased both on domestic as well as export routes, compared to the first half of 2012. Freight transport volumes reached 17.7 mln tn (up 15.3%), while turnover was at 41.0 bln tkm (an increase of 18.0%).

Construction materials. Due to a decrease in the transportation of crushed stone in the domestic market, the transport of construction materials overall in H1 ’13 fell by 8.8% y-o-y, falling to 54.8 mln tn, while turnover fell 5.0% to 82.4 bln tkm.

Ferrous metals. In H1 ’13, transportation of ferrous metals was at 35.7 mln tn (down 6.1% y-o-y), while turnover fell 13.2% to 54.7 bln tkm. Transportation of ferrous metals across the RZD network reached a historical low for the last four years. This was primarily caused by a decline in transportation of rolled products, pipes and rails. The situation was the same with exports — with a reduction across all significant exporters. The steel price fell to USD 500 (a decline of USD 80), the lowest it has been since the crisis.

Iron ore. In H1 ’13, the transportation of iron ore reached 54.4 mln tn (up 1.0% from the previous year), while turnover amounted to 56.2 bln tkm (up 3.5% from the previous year). The increase in turnover was due to an increase in ore exports to China. Ore prices during the first half of the year remained stable, ranging from USD 105 to USD 115 per tonne.

Scrap metal. The transportation of scrap metal during H1 ’13 was 7.6 mln tn (down 9.5% y-o-y), while turnover was at 6.4 bln tkm (down 10.5% y-o-y). The price of scrap in 2013 has fallen from USD 380 per tonne in March to USD 320 in June. During the same period in 2012, the average price of scrap metal was on average USD 30-USD 50 higher.

Coke. In H1 ’13, the transportation of coke was at 5.8 mln tn (down 9.4% y-o-y), while turnover fell to 14.2 bln tkm (down 9.6% y-o-y). Since the end of 2011, the price of coke has fallen steadily from USD 340 in January 2012 to USD 235 per tonne in June 2013. 

Grain. In H1 ’13, transportation of grain fell to 4.4 mln tn (down 57% y-o-y), while turnover fell to 10.7 bln tkm (down 46% y-o-y). This significant decline was the result of a weak harvest the previous year. Due to a grain deficit at the end of 2012 / beginning of 2013, the cost of wheat grew to USD 350 per tonne, while in June it fell back to USD 280 per tonne, or USD 30 higher than the average price in 2012.

Fertilizers. In H1 ’13, the transportation of fertilizers increased to 23.3 mln tn (up 1.3% y-o-y), while turnover was at 38.8 bln tkm (down 2.0% y-o-y). The main factor behind the decrease was a decline in exports. In June of this year, the price of ammonium nitrate fell to USD 250 per tonne, while in March it was as high as USD 350 per tonne.

Rolling strock production
 In the first half of 2013, 43,600 railcars were produced (a decrease of 30% or 17,800 fewer railcars compared to the first half of 2012). With an excess supply of gondolas, manufacturers began to produce more specialised railcars. The decline in the price of gondolas was followed by a decline in prices for other specialised railcars.

Gondolas. In the first half of 2013, 17,900 gondolas were produced (down 60% from the previous year, equating to 25,200 fewer gondolas in absolute terms). The oversupply of gondolas in Russia brought prices down, beginning in October 2012. By June 2013, the price of gondolas averaged out at about USD 51,500, ranging between USD 48,500 and USD 55,000.

Oil tank cars. 8,200 oil tank cars were produced in the first half of the year, an increase from the previous year of 10.0%, or of 744 units. With the increase in price, and with the ESPO pipeline coming into operation, by June 2013 the price for oil tank cars had fallen to USD 54,000 — USD 62,000.

Hoppers. In the first half of the year, 7,900 hoppers were produced (1.5 times more than the previous year, or 4,800 more in terms of units). This increase was driven by growing demand for the transportation of cement and grain. The price for cement wagons ranged between USD 51,000 and USD 63,000; for grain hoppers it was between USD 55,000 and USD 66,000, while for mineral hoppers it was between USD 53,500 and USD 63,000.

Box cars. 3,700 box cars were produced during the first half of the year (up 60% or 1,400 units from the previous year). The price for box cars ranged between USD 66,000 and USD 71,000.

Gas tank cars. 2,300 gas tank cars were produced in the first half of the year (up by a third or by 578 units from the previous year). The price decreased from USD 87,000 in February 2013 to USD 76,000 in June 2013.

Platforms. 1,200 container platforms were produced in the first half of the year (down 40%, or by 800 units, from the previous year). 687 universal platforms were produced during this period (down 9% from the previous year). The price ranged between USD 50,000 and USD 63,000.

Russian railcar operating leasing market
 In June, tariffs for all types of specialised rolling stock were down from the previous month, while tariffs for gondolas remained stable.

Daily tariffs for platforms fell to USD 30, while for box cars they increased to USD 35. The tariff for hoppers decreased to USD 28, and for oil tank cars to USD 32 — USD 37. The tariff for gas tank cars dropped to USD 48.5.

The tariff for gondolas remained the same, at about USD 20-USD 21 per day.

Russia’s rolling stock fleet
 The average level of idle rolling stock in the first half of the year was fixed at about 200,000 railcars, while surprus rolling stock fell from 100,000 railcars at the beginning of the year to 70,000 in the second quarter. The average empty run ratio was about 75%, up by 8% from the 2012 average. The rate of movement(1) on the network in the first half of the year fell from 460 km/day in February to 380 km/day in June 2013, although it remained 15% higher than the H1’ 12 average.

(1) Our calculation excludes idle rolling stock, and assumes that two days from each journey will be spent on loading and unloading. This figure gives an accurate picture of the real speed of the trains.