OREANDA-NEWS. May 27, 2013. In the past few days, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate hit new high, exceeding the 6.24 mark.

On April 18, Yao Wei, a Chinese economist with Societe Generale told reporters in Shanghai that: “The recent continuous appreciation of RMB is linked with the political elements on the eve of the G20 meeting and highlights China’s capital influx pressure.” On April 18, China’s central bank conducted RMB 43 billion repurchase with winner’s rate 2.75%.

Yao Wei noted that the current currency policy is still neutral and there is no necessity to tighten up, and the central bank’s top pressure still rests on overwhelming capital influx pressure. According to Yao Wei, the space for further improvement of RMB is quite limited, and it is forecast that RMB will depreciate after the continuous appreciation.

The depreciation may occur in the Q3 or Q4 this year, especially after the US Federal Reserve raised the nation debt rate. Societe Generale estimates that the GDP growth will hit top in Q2 this year and will slow down in Q3 and Q4, and the whole-year GDP growth will stand at about 7.6%.