OREANDA-NEWS. Dmitry Medvedev's opening remarks: We are meeting here to discuss the forecast of long-term national development to 2030. This is indeed a long-term forecast. It will be used to draft a long-term budget strategy as well as federal and regional programmes. We should see what industries will require substantial funds or organisational efforts. Of course, I'm referring to the power industry, transport and projects linked with human capital and intellectual property.

A long-term forecast allows our institutions to determine more precisely the upcoming trends in fundamental and applied research, facilitates the work of our science centres, determines future demand for specialists, helps Russian and foreign companies adopt the right strategy and reduce long-term investment risks. Needless to say, predicting the future is a thankless job, but we must try to forecast it nonetheless. There is no getting around it – this is how the entire world is developing.

There are three basic scenarios – conservative, innovative and targeted or accelerated. We will hear reports on each of these scenarios although the discussion of them is already going on. Information on the scenarios has already become public knowledge. At any rate, I consider it very important that the forecast provides different dynamics for main indicators – more optimistic in some cases and less optimistic in others. These indicators depend not only on the global economy but also on the effectiveness of domestic economic policy. This forecast reflects our vision, and our scenarios are very different from expert estimates made in Davos.

This is probably the right approach because as you remember all predictions made in Davos were pessimistic. They were based on the premise that we are just swimming with the stream, doing nothing, or the possibility of dramatic changes on the energy market or some other very serious problems. So our task today is to discuss the scenarios drafted by the Ministry of Economic Development and decide what to do.

There are controversial moments, but I'm sure this is a good thing. For all the importance of macroeconomic indicators, we should not put too much emphasis on them for the simple reason that we do not yet have a clear idea of what will happen in the years to come. In general, increasing GDP is a very important goal but not the only one. Moreover, different scenarios may have similar GDP trajectories.

Qualitative growth parameters have primary importance considering our demographic, infrastructure and institutional limitations. It is apparent to us that increasing labour productivity is the main thing – the subject which is most complicated for us. Energy efficiency is very important for us because we have big problems with power consumption in the economy. We need to focus on improving the work with human resources in order to ensure modern economic growth in the present conditions which will be less dependent on market fluctuations. The successful solution of these issues will make it possible to modernise the economy and social policy. We must also have a clear idea of the sources for such growth, particularly in the context of increasing global competition for investment and skilled manpower – it is these factors incidentally that now determine long-term competitiveness.

We are all expecting this slow-moving post-crisis development to come to an end, so that the window of opportunity that has opened and which is now being widely discussed doesn't turn into a situation where competitive manpower, as well as capital and, of course, technology, continue to flow out of our country as if into a black hole.

Equally important is the evaluation of foreign trade risks and domestic challenges, including those connected with the dependence of the Russian economy on changes in raw materials markets and energy markets. A common feature of all three scenarios (they will presently be described in some detail) is counting on  moderate growth in prices for oil and other resources: an average of 1% a year, a view currently shared by most experts. The Urals price in real terms during this period is expected to be somewhere between USD 90 and USD 110 a barrel at 2010 prices. In any case, such an analysis will help to identify problem situations in advance and work out preventive measures.

We have our strategic goals – integration with our partners and neighbours, and our innovative development. I hope these two factors will become competitive advantages for us rather than weights dragging our economy backwards.

I would like to note once more that the exact scenario according to which events will develop will depend on what we manage to do in the next five years, because we will lay down the foundations for such long-term development now. Everything we have to do is subject to the Guidelines for the Government’s Performance which we discussed (at an expanded Government meeting held by the President) and which I approved as our basic domestic document. I hope we will be able to move forward in all directions, improve the business climate and promote the state administrative system. I hope the economic structure will change too, and, of course, as a result it will become possible to solve socioeconomic issues as well, including demographic ones.

Let's start discussing the forecast.